College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Trouble Bruin for Beavers

I love betting college football futures. But I just made the best futures bet of my life when my wife and I welcomed our baby girl into the world six weeks ago. So, I left the Triple Option in the capable hands of Douglas Farmer.

Doug absolutely crushed it going 12-6 for +6.18 units through the first six weeks of the season. He really was having a Jose Berrios-level performance. But I’m back and taking the ball from him despite the excellent results. Now, I’m just hoping not to be the Yusei Kikuchi in this scenario.

How do we avoid the same disaster as the Blue Jays? By sticking to what we know. Jumping into handicap any sport midseason can be difficult. But college football odds may be the toughest considering the scope of the sport. Now, imagine trying to do that while someone hands you a newborn.

So, what do we know for this week's free college football picks? We know Michigan is running roughshod all over everybody and Indiana’s run defense is about as potent as the Blue Jays bats. We know all about Service Academy Unders. And while we don’t have exactly that, Air Force hosting Wyoming is pretty close. And we know DJ Uiagalelei is still limited as a passer, and being one-dimensional against this dominant UCLA defense is not a good idea.

Help me send off Doug in style as I try to continue his great run in my first week back at the helm of the Triple Option — Covers’ best college football predictions for Week 7. God, I hope I’m not Kikuchi.

College football Week 7 picks

• Donovan Edwards Over 35.5 rushing yards (-114)
• Under 21 first-half total (-110)
• Oregon State team total Under 29.5 (-115)

Picks made on October 12. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 7 odds, picks, and predictions

Indiana vs Michigan prediction

This season, I plan on throwing a few more player props into the Triple Option now that sportsbooks are starting to give us more markets. And there’s no time like the present. So, let’s start in Ann Arbor, where the No. 2-ranked Michigan Wolverines host the Indiana Hoosiers. 

The Wolverines enter this Big Ten matchup with a perfect 6-0 straight-up record and the impressive part is it looks like they haven’t really needed to try all that hard. But we have seen them start to shift into a higher gear with the start of conference play, outscoring opponents 128-24 and going 2-0-1 against the spread over three Big Ten matchups. 

They’ve done most of that work on the strength of their defense and running backs, and I expect more of the same in this matchup. Indiana has one of the worst rushing defenses in the country. The Hoosiers rank 125th in the nation allowing 5.5 yards per carry vs. FBS opponents this season.

Now, that obviously means a big day should be in store for Blake Corum. The Wolverines' top back has shown no ill effects of last season’s injury rushing for 494 yards and 10 touchdowns. But with Corum back Donovan Edwards has become somewhat of a forgotten man.

Edwards came up huge for the Wolverines down the stretch last season, rushing for 520 yards over Michigan’s final three games. 

Unfortunately, he just hasn’t been able to break free for those big runs this year — even though he's more than capable of taking it to the house every time he touches the ball. But he should get plenty of opportunities to change that in a game where Michigan is laying 33.5 points at home against a team that ranks 89th in the country in rushes allowed of 10 yards or more.

Edwards' rushing prop is set at 35.5 yards. Despite being used more sparingly so far this season, he’s still gone Over that number three times. Edwards has the ability to go Over that number with one touch.

PICK: Donovan Edwards Over 35.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Wyoming vs Air Force prediction

When you’ve been away from the game for a while like I have, it’s best to stick to what you know when you first get back on that field. And one of the things I know about college football is service academy Unders. And while we don’t get a true one this week, the Air Force Falcons taking on the Wyoming Cowboys is the next best thing.

Air Force has been, well, a force so far this season. The Falcons have used their triple-option offense to rumble over the competition. They've hit 39 points or more in four of their first five games this season.

But for some reason or another, Wyoming always seems to give Air Force problems.

The Cowboys are also off to a solid start at 5-1, which includes a win over Texas Tech, and their defense has picked up over the last three games. Not many teams have handled the Air Force triple option better than Wyoming. The Cowboys have held the Falcons to a combined 58 points in the last three meetings dating back to 2019.

Unfortunately for the Cowboys, stopping the run may be easier than actually running the ball in this one. While Wyoming’s offense isn’t quite as run-first as Air Force, the Cowboys still rank 29th in run play percentage.

But it could be like running into a brick wall going against a Falcons run defense that allows just 2.7 yards per carry this season. Air Force also ranks sixth in yards per play allowed. So, moving the ball in general won’t be fun.

The Falcons are coming off a bye and could pull away late in this one, but with running and defense being the theme here, I like this game to start slowly and play out like those hallowed service academy games. Much like it has in the last three meetings between these two Mountain West rivals. 

PICK: Under 21 first-half total (-110 at BetMGM)

UCLA vs Oregon State prediction

After missing basically the first half of the season tending to my newborn, I’m still trying to get caught up with everything in the world of college football. Prior to the season, I wasn’t sure what to make of Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins. They were coming off an impressive season but lost quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet.

So, I was a little stunned to realize that Kelly actually has a dominant defense for once. And I’m not sure that some people who have been watching college football all season understand how good this UCLA defense is. 

The Bruins' defense is coming off an absolutely dominant performance against a solid Washington State offense, where they held Wazzu to 216 total yards and just one offensive touchdown. This week, they’ll take that elite defense to Corvallis to face the Oregon State Beavers.

Now, Washington State relies more on the passing attack, while Oregon State prefers the ground game. (With DJ Uiagalelei as your quarterback, your offense will always be somewhat one-dimensional). But guess what? UCLA’s front seven is so ferocious that it doesn’t matter what you prefer.

The Bruins rank first in the nation in opponent yards per play allowed and are second in yards per rushing attempt allowed. UCLA is pretty much a stone wall, holding teams to 1.7 yards per carry.

Oregon State has had some good scoring performances this season but the last time this team played a solid defensive team, Utah held them to just 21 points. And to make things tougher on Uiagalelei and the Beavs, they could be without one of their best offensive linemen in right tackle Taliese Fuaga, who left last week’s game in the first half and didn’t return.

UCLA hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any game this season. I’m betting Oregon State isn’t the first team to put up 30 points on this elite unit.

PICK: Oregon State team total Under 29.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Week 7 odds and upcoming games

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