The Kansas State Wildcats look to turn things around as they head to Tucson for a Friday night game with the Arizona Wildcats.
Chris Klieman’s squad has gone from preseason Big 12 favorite to dumpster fire in a few short weeks and has yet to cover a spread, so I’ll need to see it before I believe it.
See why my Kansas State vs. Arizona predictions and college football picks are siding with the home team for Friday, September 12.
Kansas State vs Arizona predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Kansas State vs Arizona spread pick: Arizona -1.5
It’s been a tough draw, playing in Ireland, then not taking a bye week, and then having to face a triple-option team. The thing is, there’s no let-up — they now head to Tucson on a short week after a crushing three-point loss to Army. Perhaps this team turns things around after the Week 4 bye week, but we’re not there yet.
The Arizona Wildcats are one of two teams yet to allow a touchdown. They’re 2-0 and look vastly improved from last year’s 4-8 squad, which is to be expected given the tumultuous offseason that took place heading into 2024.
They rank Top 25 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball, and while they’ve benefited from easy matchups against Hawaii and Weber State, they’ve handled business accordingly.
Early Kansas State vs Arizona total pick: Over 54.5
Arizona’s defense has played well, allowing just 3.6 yards per play, but it has benefited from playing Hawaii with an injured starting quarterback and an FCS school. It remains to be seen how Arizona will look on that side of the ball in its first true test of the season, so I’d expect Kansas State (6.3 yards per play) to find some offensive success.
Avery Johnson is a dangerous dual-threat. He faces an Arizona defense that allowed 31.8 ppg and 413 yards per game a season ago, and not enough has changed that Johnson & Co. will be kept out of the end zone.
On the flip side, Noah Fifita is primed for a bounceback season and has tossed six touchdowns to no interceptions while averaging 11.9 yards per attempt. Kansas State has shown vulnerabilities in the secondary (88th in EPA per pass), which Fifita will look to exploit.
With two good quarterbacks squaring off on a Friday night, I expect both to have success. Arizona wants to play fast this year under offensive coordinator Seth Doege, and this is our first real chance of seeing that tempo play out in a game.
Kansas State vs Arizona odds
- Kansas State vs. Arizona spread: Arizona -1.5
- Kansas State vs. Arizona moneyline: Kansas State -110, Arizona -110
- Kansas State vs. Arizona Over/Under: 54.5
How to watch Kansas State vs Arizona
- Kansas State vs. Arizona matchup
- Date: Friday, September 12, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- City: Tucson, AZ
- Venue: Arizona Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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