The casual football fan may not be overly excited by the idea of a Thursday night ACC matchup between two teams in the bottom half of the conference, but the North Carolina State Wolfpack defense should make one thing certain this week: There will be more points scored in Winston-Salem than in any NFL game on Thursday night.
That is true even with a relatively worrying Wake Forest Demon Deacons offense.
My North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest predictions and college football picks expect points and drama, in no small part because of defensive incompetence from the Wolfpack.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Thursday, Sept. 11.
NC State vs Wake Forest prediction
NC State vs Wake Forest best bet: Over 53.5 (-110)
In what must be an all-time first, let’s quote Maya Angelou in this college football prediction: “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.”
North Carolina State head coach Dave Doeren showed us who the Wolfpack are on Saturday. Let’s believe him.
It was not just that NC State gave up 514 yards to Virginia. It was not just that the Cavaliers averaged 6.85 yards per play and converted 14 of 19 late-down situations. Every one of those stats is worrisome, but perhaps Virginia’s offense warrants more credit than it was given entering the season.
It was not just that NC State gave up a quality drive on eight of Virginia’s 10 possessions. It was not just that the Cavaliers found a passing rhythm to the tune of succeeding on 47% of passes. Wake Forest will probably not find that same rhythm as it learns new head coach Jake Dickert’s system.
It was that with a chance to ask his defense to win the game, Dave Doeren was more comfortable asking his offense to convert a 4th-and-1 inside its own 30-yard line. With 3:24 remaining, Doeren saw his defense as too much of a liability to punt in that moment.
The offense converted, only to punt shortly thereafter. But Doeren’s doubt was loud. He did not think NC State could stop Virginia when it needed to. Take Doeren at his word, expect another shootout from the Wolfpack on both sides of the ball.
NC State vs Wake Forest same-game parlay
The sheer number of possibilities of this matchup encourages both a chaotic fourth quarter and a backdoor cover from Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are a wildcard this season, with new head coach Jake Dickert installing a wildly different offense than Dave Clawson's old slow-mesh. That creates some value in betting on variance.
Adding in a CJ Bailey touchdown is simple: The sophomore quarterback has already rushed for three this season.
NC State vs Wake Forest SGP
- Over 53.5
- Wake Forest +7.5
- CJ Bailey Touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Demon Deacons rise to the occasion
Virginia ran the ball 32 times against North Carolina State in a shootout last weekend, turning five of those carries into explosive rushes. No wonder J'Mari Taylor had touchdown rushes of 39 and 66 yards, along with a nine-yarder, on his way to 150 yards on just 17 carries.
Wake Forest running back Demond Claiborne is already averaging 16.3 yards per rush this season. He might keep that up on Thursday night.
NC State vs Wake Forest SGP
- Over 53.5
- Wake Forest +7.5
- CJ Bailey Touchdown
- Demond Claiborne Touchdown
- Demond Claiborne Over 86.5 Rushing Yards
NC State vs Wake Forest odds
- Spread: NC State -7.5 | Wake Forest +7.5
- Moneyline: NC State -300 | Wake Forest +240
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
NC State vs Wake Forest trend to know
While NC State’s game against Virginia last week was technically a non-conference game — some ACC schools play so rarely, they take matters into their own hands — the Wolfpack have cashed seven Overs in their last nine games against teams in the ACC. Find more college football betting trends for NC State vs Wake Forest.
How to watch NC State vs Wake Forest
| Location | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC |
| Date | Thursday, September 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
NC State vs Wake Forest latest injuries
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