The Texas Longhorns will look for a statement win when they host the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.
After coming up short against the Buckeyes in each of the past two meetings, Texas will look to turn the tables at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin.
This marquee matchup kicks off Saturday, Sept. 12, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and we're chock-full of Ohio State vs. Texas best bets, odds, props, and win probabilities for tonight's prime-time matchup on ABC, along with our best college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 12.
Ohio State vs Texas predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Texas moneyline | 53% |
| Texas -1.5 | 50% |
| Over 49.5 | 48% |
| Devin McCuin Over 49.5 receiving yards — Yes | 41% |
| Arch Manning Over 25.5 rushing yards — Yes | 43% |
| Bo Jackson Over 57.5 rushing yards — Yes | 54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Ohio State vs Texas?
After a bumpy start to his first full season as a starter, Rob Paul's Ohio State vs. Texas prediction has the Heisman candidate leading his team to victory against the Buckeyes.
Our prediction: Texas to win — Yes (53%)
"The key to a Texas win at home against a college football championship odds favorite is Arch Manning. Last year's loss to Ohio State was his first collegiate road start, and it came against a defense littered with All-Americans and high NFL draft picks.
But those players are gone — the Buckeyes had seven defensive starters drafted, including five in the Top 62 (a modern-era record).
And after a bumpy start to his first full season as Steve Sarkisian's QB1, Manning played up to his family name and had the highest QBR in the country from November onward (87.5).
Sarkisian bolstered the talent around Manning too, by bringing in Cam Coleman, Melvin Siani, Hollywood Smothers, and Raleek Brown via the portal. With Texas' offensive improvements, I like them to win at 55% or better."
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Ohio State vs Texas spread prediction
(-1.5)Our prediction: Texas -1.5 — Yes (50%)
Rob Paul's Top 25 predictions for Week 2 have the Longhorns prevailing by a field goal at home:
"With reinforcements on offense, Manning should be able to pressure an Ohio State defense that had five starters drafted in the Top 62 this past April (a modern-era record) and ranks 78th in returning production (50%).
Given Texas' offensive upgrades, Ohio State's defensive losses, and Julian Sayin's struggles in games against Top 10 teams (three interceptions, 10 sacks), I have the Longhorns winning 27-24."
Ohio State vs Texas total prediction
Our prediction: Over 49.5 — Yes (48%)
Rob Paul also expects plenty of points in Austin:
"When Ohio State and Texas played last year, neither Julian Sayin nor Manning had ever started against a ranked opponent before. Now, they're both Heisman Trophy odds contenders and are considered two of the best QBs in the country.
They're also surrounded by NFL talent; each has a projected Top 10 pick at wide receiver (Jeremiah Smith for Ohio State, Coleman for Texas), a veteran offensive line, and offensive head coaches who consistently produce top-ranked units. Both Texas and Ohio State are ranked Top five on offense by SP+.
And a lot has changed for both defenses since last year. Ohio State is 78th in returning defensive production (50%), and Texas has a new coordinator in Will Muschamp, who hadn't called a defense this decade before last week. I'm expecting both QBs to shine in what will feel like a shootout compared to last year (the Over is in play up to 50.5 for me)."
More Ohio State vs Texas picks from Covers
Ohio State vs. Texas player props
Prop 1: Devin McCuin Over 49.5 receiving yards — Yes (41%)
Jason Ence's favorite Ohio State vs. Texas prop picks lead with sneaky value on Ohio State's WR2:
"When Ryan Day starts comparing someone to Chris Olave, I sit up and take notice. That’s exactly what he did with Devin McCuin ahead of Ohio State's season opener.
McCuin responded by registering 97 yards and a touchdown vs. Ball State, catching 6-of-7 targets. He was the primary receiver opposite Jeremiah Smith, lining up on the outside on 22 of 25 routes run.
Texas will likely rotate a safety to Smith’s side as they did last season, and Carnell Tate responded with 49 yards on two catches as a result.
I fully expect Julian Sayin to put up more than 126 passing yards, which raises McCuin’s floor and makes this a terrific play up to 50%."
Prop 2: Arch Manning Over 25.5 rushing yards — Yes (43%)
"I’m pumped to get this total south of 48%. Arch Manning scrambled for 32 of his 80 carries last season, but those runs accounted for 67.2% of his rushing total for the year.
The Buckeyes put numerous players in the NFL from last year’s outstanding defense. That defense watched Manning escape the pocket numerous times, picking up 38 yards on 10 carries and getting sacked just once.
That defense is still good, but it would be nearly impossible to reach that same level of play. With the weapons Manning has to work with downfield, committing a spy on him is a major risk.
Arch scrambled seven of the eight times he was pressured by Michigan in their bowl game, showing his ability to make plays when the pocket collapses. Add Steve Sarkisian's tendencies to get his QBs moving with the RPO, and this is a great spot for him to pile up the rushing yards."
Prop 3: Bo Jackson Over 57.5 rushing yards — Yes (54%)
"The Buckeyes have a home-run hitter in Bo Jackson — and perhaps more importantly, a weapon the Longhorns have not come up against yet.
Jackson missed last season’s opener, but they’ll be aware of his threat. Of his 1,085 rushing yards in 2025, he picked up 36.9% of them via breakaway runs and 67.6% after contact.
As Jackson showed in the opener against Ball State, he only needs one chance to rack up the yards. The Cardinals bottled him up for much of the game, but he picked up 65 of his 83 yards with one burst.
As good as the Texas defense is, they missed quite a few tackles against Texas State in their opener. If they don’t improve on their 59.1 tackling grade (PFF), Jackson could clear his total with one burst of speed."
Ohio State vs. Texas live markets explained
Kalshi's event contracts can be bought and sold as the Ohio State vs. Texas game unfolds, meaning traders aren't locked into their pregame positions.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will Ohio State beat Texas"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Iowa State vs. Iowa position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Ohio State vs. Texas at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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