With College GameDay on campus, Iowa hosts Ohio State at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS), and I'm making my Ohio State vs. Iowa predictions.
Despite the Hawkeyes beating Michigan on the final play last week, the Buckeyes are 13.5-point favorites. My college football picks expect Ryan Day's passing offense to be a problem for Phil Parker's defense.
Ohio State vs Iowa predictions
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Early Ohio State vs Iowa spread pick: Ohio State -13.5
This is a significant spread for Ohio State to cover on the road, and I only like the Buckeyes at -13.5 or better. The largest reason why I like the Buckeyes to win by 2+ touchdowns is that Iowa is coming off a season-defining win over Michigan, and it now needs to play a team the school doesn't match up well against.
Ohio State boasts one of the best passing attacks in the country, ranking No. 4 in EPA per pass and No. 3 in pass success rate (60.9%). Iowa's pass defense hasn't been as strong as in recent years, sitting No. 66 in EPA per pass and No. 38 in pass success rate (41%).
The Buckeyes field the Heisman Trophy odds-favorite, Jeremiah Smith, who catches passes from one of the country's most efficient QBs, Julian Sayin. Ohio State is No. 24 in offensive explosiveness (1.342), and a few chunk plays to Smith could be the difference.
Iowa will struggle to score more than 20 points on a Buckeyes defense that's No. 7 in net EPA per play. I have Ohio State winning 34-17.
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Early Ohio State vs Iowa total pick: Over 45.5
The bulk of the scoring will come from an Ohio State offense ranked No. 7 in offensive success rate (52.4%) and No. 13 in points per opportunity (5.11), but I still like the Over at 48.5 or better.
While Iowa's defense is one of the best in the Big Ten, it struggled to slow Bryce Underwood last week. Underwood produced arguably the best game of his career against the Hawkeyes, with a 10.3% big-time throw rate and zero turnover-worthy plays.
The Wolverines scored just 19 points in the loss, but they also put up 429 total yards and produced two drives that ended inside Iowa's 20-yard line with zero points. Ohio State's offense is far less mistake-prone and can finish drives with touchdowns.
Smith is the best player in the country, and he leads college football in receiving yards (617) and is tied in receiving touchdowns (seven), and Sayin sits No. 2 nationally in QBR (92.8). All Iowa will need to do for the Over to hit is score 13+ points.
Ohio State vs Iowa odds
- Ohio State vs Iowa spread: Ohio State -13.5
- Ohio State vs Iowa moneyline: Ohio State 83%, Iowa 17%
- Ohio State vs Iowa Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Ohio State vs Iowa
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Iowa City, IA
- Venue: Kinnick Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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