North Dakota State vs New Mexico Picks & Props
NDSU vs UNM Picks
NCAAF Picks
u40.5 (+100)
Playable to 52%.
These elite defenses will be aided this weekend by adverse weather conditions. Rain and wind figure to make downfield passing difficult, which should lead to both of these offenses being one-dimensional. Expect a low-scoring slugfest in this Saturday night Mountain West showdown.
NDSU +4.5 (-108)
Playable to 53%.
New Mexico remains undefeated in conference play, but they are in a tough scheduling spot this Saturday after playing in Hawai'i in Week 7. The Bison are a talented team that has a significant travel advantage in this spot, despite being the road team.
This could be the best G6 game of the season, and with major CFP implications, I like New Mexico to cover -4.5 or better. The Lobos have the best defense in the G6, ranking first nationally in havoc rate (26%), and home-field advantage in Albuquerque will be huge after Jason Eck's push to try to sell it out. North Dakota State has been impressive, but its inconsistent offense (7 points against UNLV) will be a problem against the Lobos.
Playable to 22%.
This is a game that North Dakota State is built to win. The Bison don't have a high-powered offense, but their defense is capable of making life difficult for any opponent. Rain and wind should slow down both of these offenses, leading to a lower-scoring affair. More risk-averse bettors could tease the dog and the total here to get even better margins on both legs of this combo.
NDSU vs UNM Consensus Picks
NDSU vs UNM Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
UNM
-5.5 spread
-5.53
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
4.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
40.5 Total
42.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
17.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
NDSU
N. Hayes
(QB)
o149.5 Passing Yards
184.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+35.2
DIFFERENCE
25.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
UNM
T. Fa'avae
(QB)
o149.5 Passing Yards
159.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.4
DIFFERENCE
21.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UNM
K. Sibley
(RB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
40.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
2.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNM
C. Keith
(TE)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
36.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.0
DIFFERENCE
25.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNM
B. George
(WR)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
36.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.6
DIFFERENCE
24.59%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Bison last 4 games as an underdog.
Lobos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Bison are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Lobos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 8-1 in Bison last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Bison are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
ROI Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.