Nevada vs Boise State Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets: Lewis Helps Run Up the Score

See why our college football betting picks are calling for a Saturday night barnburner in the Mountain West when Nevada visits Boise State.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Nov 9, 2024 • 17:01 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Brendon Lewis Nevada Wolf Pack NCAAF
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Quarterback Brendon Lewis airing it out for Nevada.

Tonight features a terrific Mountain West football game when the Nevada Wolf Pack take on the Boise State Broncos.

Nevada hopes to end a three-game losing skid, but my Nevada vs. Boise State predictions expect a high-scoring affair in which the Broncos comfortably prevail.

Read on as I explain why I like the Over with my free college football picks for November 9. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, with the game airing on FOX. 

Nevada vs Boise State prediction and best bet

My best bet
Over 60.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

The Boise State Broncos offense is a dominant one. Sure, they have one of the top rushers in all football, but the Broncos are more than just RB Ashton Jeanty.

The Broncos star RB may run all over the Nevada Wolf Pack like he has everyone else this season. Jeanty dominating defenses is usually a given, but Boise State has a solid 11-man unit topping the Mountain West with 45.8 points per game.

The Broncos have exceeded 45+ in three of their last five. Sophomore QB Maddux Madsen has thrown 17 scoring strikes against two interceptions, with six fellow Broncos recording 100+ receiving yards.

That’s tough for anyone to stop. Nevada has surrendered more than its 22-point average in five straight games. They’ve been better against the pass than the rush but mediocre overall, and mediocre isn’t going to stop the Broncos offense.

Fortunately for Nevada, their offense is better than mediocre. They have a solid rushing offense led by the two-pronged attack of quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Savion Red.

Both have scampered for 600+ rushing yards. Lewis has thrown for an additional 1,542 passing yards with 11 scoring strikes and five picks. This group has scored 21+ in four of their last five and should score 21+ on Saturday night.

If the Wolf Pack score 21+, and I believe they will, this game will end Over the total. The Broncos stop unit is also mediocre. They’ve allowed 24+ in four of their last five. 

Boise State plays lockdown defense against the rush but ranks eighth in the Mountain West against the pass. That should open the door for Lewis to have a big night with his arm, and if he does, then this one ends Over the number.

Nevada vs Boise State same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 60.5

Brendon Lewis anytime touchdown

Boise State -23.5

Lewis is a jewel the FOX audience will enjoy watching. The Wolf Pack QB is the second-leading rusher for Nevada and has scored at least one TD in each of his last four. 

Boise State has surrendered 11 rushing TDs in the red zone, which should allow Lewis to call his number and find paydirt at least once.

Lewis' rushing and passing prowess will help fuel the Over, but it won’t help Nevada cover the spread. The Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS across their last five and meet a Wolf Pack side with a 2-2-1 ATS mark across their previous five. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nevada vs Boise State odds

Nevada vs Boise State live odds

Nevada vs Boise State opening odds

  • Nevada vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -25.5
  • Nevada vs. Boise State moneyline: Nevada +1,550 | Boise State -5,000
  • Nevada vs. Boise State Over/Under: 60.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Nevada vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Nevada is 5-4-1 ATS in its previous 10 games. The number has swung to as low as +23.5 (-110). The likely culprit for the move is Boise State having a couple of O-linemen on their injury report.
  • Boise State is 6-3-1 ATS across their last 10 and 3-2-0 ATS in their previous five meetings with Nevada.
  • The total hasn’t budged much from the 60.5 (-110) opener. Nevada is 4-1-0 to the Over across their last five tilts, and Boise State is 3-2-0 to the Over in their previous five contests.

Nevada vs Boise State betting trend to know

Boise State has hit the Over in six of its last seven home games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Nevada vs Boise State.

Nevada vs Boise State game info

Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Date: Saturday, 11-9-2024
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the tennis betting podcast, This Week in Tennis.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications including SB Nation, FanSided and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. Phil curates the Chip and Charge Tennis Newsletter and pens a weekly tennis column called “10 Things About the ATP Tour," for Passing Shot Productions. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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