Is the U back? Are the ‘Noles back? And does a single off year really justify asking if a program is “back” at all?
Regardless of those questions, this Miami vs. Florida State matchup stands out—for the first time since 2021, the spread between these two rivals is within one score. If nothing else, the rivalry itself might just be back.
No one is more thankful for that than the ACC.
My Miami vs. Florida State predictions expect the Seminoles’ coaching staff to show exactly why the line is tight: by leaning on the run game, controlling the clock, and keeping things simple.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Miami vs Florida State prediction
Miami vs Florida State best bet: Tommy Castellanos Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
A question that should stand out this entire season is how Alabama was so unprepared for Gus Malzahn’s offense at Florida State. Malzahn has always been a run-first and then run-second coach, one who emphasizes a ball-carrying quarterback to make the defense’s life miserable.
The Tide had to know that was coming.
And Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos still ran for 78 yards on 16 carries, adding one touchdown, as Florida State took 49 carries for 230 yards and four scores.
Expecting Mike Norvell and Gus Malzahn to manage the clock better than Mario Cristobal does is like expecting me to outdrink my 12-year-old nephew.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 3, 2025
I would hope so.
Anyway, that is why the right play in Tallahassee is the Under 53.5, -105 at @FDSportsbook. https://t.co/3OtC5LdEC0 pic.twitter.com/l7oigb1FzO
Malzahn’s offense runs the ball 8.1% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs.com. And that number could climb on Saturday night. Focusing on Castellanos and the ground game will keep the ball out of the Miami Hurricanes' hands a bit, and the tighter this game is late, the more faith that should be put in Florida State simply because it is not coached by Mario Cristobal.
Castellanos has cleared this prop in all three FBS games this season. Facing the aggressive Hurricanes’ defensive front should not deter this bet now, especially since Miami is more susceptible against the rush than it is against the pass. Castellanos and Florida State will gladly focus on that weakness. It is Malzahn’s default, anyway.
Miami vs Florida State same-game parlay
This is superstar-driven in a way that may indicate a shootout is coming, but the thought process is actually the opposite: Florida State should lean on its unique rushing attack to shorten this game, emphasizing QB Tommy Castellanos.
Once Miami recognizes that distinct intent, the Hurricanes will need to focus more on what they do best, which is to rely on Carson Beck's arm strength.
Miami vs Florida State SGP
- Tommy Castellanos Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Tommy Castellanos anytime touchdown
- Carson Beck Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Our deep-ball SGP: Legs Castellanos!
Betting on Castellanos's success may run counter to an Under leg on the surface, but the two are very much correlated. Florida State relying on Castellanos's legs will shorten this game, the Seminoles' best chance at limiting the damage done by Carson Beck's arm.
Miami vs Florida State SGP
- Tommy Castellanos Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
- Tommy Castellanos Touchdown
- Carson Beck Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Under 53.5
Miami vs Florida State game predictions
Miami vs Florida State moneyline prediction
The longer this game stays close, the more faith should be put in the home underdog. That is not to say the Seminoles will spring this upset; one has to think Miami can throw to its content against a defense that was just exposed by Virginia last Friday.
However, a live bet on Florida State would make sense if this game is within a touchdown halfway through the third quarter, especially if the Seminoles have possession of the ball.
Miami vs Florida State spread prediction
It should be acknowledged that if Miami can establish a lead, even just a 10-point lead, then Florida State could be in a heap of trouble. Advanced numbers suggest this spread should be between 6.5 and 7.5. The only logical reason it is notably lower than that is the expectation that the Seminoles will shorten the game.
But if the Hurricanes can get out ahead early, they can somewhat mitigate that Malzahn intention.
Miami vs Florida State Over/Under prediction
In other words, if siding with Miami at -4.5, then the Over 53.5 would be somewhat correlated. However, if you side with Florida State at +4.5, the Under 53.5 should speak loudly to you.
Miami vs Florida State odds
- Spread: Miami -4.5 | Florida State +4.5
- Moneyline: Miami -180 | Florida State +152
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
Miami vs Florida State trend to know
Miami has yet to play on the road this season. Still, the Hurricanes went 1-3 against the spread in their last four road games last season, along with 2-2 outright, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.1 points, even including the one ATS win. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Florida State.
How to watch Miami vs Florida State
| Location | Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Miami vs Florida State weather
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