Marshall vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks and Predictions: Fighting Irish Suffocate Herd

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish stressed Ohio State last week, but they could not quite pull off the Top-5 upset. First-year head coach Marcus Freeman is now 0-2, including the Irish loss in the Fiesta Bowl. No Notre Dame coach has ever started 0-3.

To avoid that ignominious distinction, Freeman and the Irish need to top the Marshall Thundering Herd. As a three-touchdown favorite, a win should be the least expected from Notre Dame.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Marshall vs. Notre Dame on September 10.

Marshall vs Notre Dame best odds

Marshall vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

The narrative leaving Notre Dame’s 21-10 loss at Ohio State was that the Irish took the air out of the ball solely to keep the Buckeyes’ heralded offense off the field. There was some truth to that. Holding onto the ball was the most certain way to keep Ohio State from scoring and then scoring some more.

But Notre Dame needed to slow the game down also because its offense is limited these days. Five receivers are healthy enough to play, and that includes freshman Tobias Merriweather, who was nicked up a bit during preseason practices, and fifth-year former walk-on Matt Salerno. According to Freeman on Thursday, those numbers are unlikely to change this weekend.

The Irish have tight ends aplenty to buttress the passing game, but they are more likely to lean on their run game, especially after it struggled in Columbus. Fifth-year left guard and preseason All-American Jarrett Patterson missed that primetime tilt, and in his absence, Notre Dame rushed for only 95 yards on 27 carries (sacks adjusted).

Irish success this season will hinge on that rushing game finding success. Emphasizing that against an overmatched opponent could go a long way to building momentum early in the season, not to mention suppressing this game’s total.

And yes, Marshall will be overmatched. Though the Herd brought in 24 transfers this offseason and many of them come from Power Five programs, it is still dependent on a sixth-year quarterback who could not win the starting job at his first stop, Utah State, or hold onto it at his second, Texas Tech.

The Herd ran up the score on FCS-level Norfolk State last week, winning 55-3, but only so much can be gleaned from beating one of the worst teams in the second level of college football. Notre Dame’s defense will clearly be a stiffer test, and it may be even more so than realized coming into the season.

Part of Ohio State managing only 21 points last week was the Irish game plan, but part of it was also simply the Notre Dame defense. Before the Buckeyes dominated the fourth quarter, the Irish had given up just four explosive plays. Facing a Heisman frontrunner quarterback in C.J. Stroud, only three passes went for more than 20 yards.

Notre Dame should keep Marshall quarterback Henry Colombi even more in check. Doing so, particularly while the Herd remains without star running back Rasheen Ali, should mean Marshall falls short of pushing up this total.

To shorten all that, the Irish want to run, to both prove they can and to spare their few receivers, all while the Herd is unlikely to do much of anything offensively.

My best bet: Under 50.5 points (-112 at UniBet)

Marshall vs Notre Dame betting preview

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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

Favored by 20.5 points, Notre Dame’s emphasis will simply be winning, even more than usual. That said, if Marshall is going to struggle to score, the Irish will not need to do all that much to win by three touchdowns.

The question may become how little the Herd will score Last November, Freeman’s defense gave up a total of 23 points, with three of those four games coming against Power Five opponents. In three other games earlier in the year, Notre Dame gave up 16 or fewer points. Limiting opponents to the bare minimum was more common than giving up mistakes.

Bookmakers hesitate to set an Over/Under so low in an expected blowout because they assume the underdog will capitalize on at least one mistake before possibly adding an otherwise meaningless score. Many a backdoor cover becomes possible only because a chunk play in the first half set up a touchdown.

But, as exhibited by holding Ohio State to only four explosive plays through three quarters — and, for that matter, only eight total; still a remarkable number against the Buckeyes — the Irish defense is not prone to giving up many mistakes.

Over/Under analysis

There is a version of this game where Notre Dame is spurred to push this toward the Over all on its own. Marshall would need to score first, perhaps even twice before the Irish do. At that point, Notre Dame will not only be worried about a competitive game, but also it will be more likely to keep pushing even with a lead. If the Herd offense proves itself viable early, that concern will linger late.

But that would all be a surprise, not just because Marshall is a three-touchdown underdog. Irish offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has shown adeptness when operating within Notre Dame’s early-game script. The Irish jumped all over Oklahoma State’s vaunted defense early in the Fiesta Bowl. They even scored first against Ohio State when that particular prop bet was paying out at nearly +200.

It would not be so profitable this weekend, found at most books around -300, but it is still the real-world likelihood. Once Notre Dame scores early, most likely even twice before the Herd does, it will soon have reason to ease up, if for no other reason than to rest those few healthy receivers.

Marshall vs Notre Dame game info

• Location: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock

Marshall vs Notre Dame key injuries

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Marshall vs Notre Dame weather

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Marshall vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

The Irish have gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Marshall vs. Notre Dame.

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