Georgia hopes to rebound from a tough loss last week when it hosts Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.
The Wildcats haven’t enjoyed their visits to Sanford Stadium, having lost the last six trips by an average of 28.5 points.
My Kentucky vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4 explain why things will get ugly in a hurry for the visitors.
Kentucky vs Georgia prediction
Kentucky vs Georgia best bet: Georgia -10.5 1H (-120)
The Georgia Bulldogs pass defense is what cost it the game against Alabama last week. Ty Simpson threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns against a secondary that ranks 100th or worse in both EPA/dropback and passing success rate.
Thankfully for the Bulldogs, they get the Kentucky Wildcats this week.
Anybody who has watched a single quarter of Kentucky football under Mark Stoops knows how he wants to play against quality teams like Georgia — hand the ball off as much as possible, shorten the game, and have a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. That’s why the Wildcats have a run rate over average of more than 9%.
But Georgia’s run defense is outstanding. Ask Alabama, whose running backs picked up just 76 yards on 26 carries. They rank Top 5 in explosive run rate against, and Top 15 in EPA/run, while allowing just 0.6 second-level yards and 2.5 line yards per rush.
The Wildcats have already switched quarterbacks, and it hasn’t mattered. They rank 125th in passing success, 131st in EPA/pass, and 90th in available yards gained. While the ground game has had success at times, it’s been inconsistent.
Georgia will load up the box on Saturday and dare Cutter Boley to beat them with his arm. That is something this Kentucky offense simply isn’t built to do. Boley looked lost for much of the game against South Carolina, making poor reads and forcing passes into coverage.
The Gamecocks took advantage, returning a Boley fumble for a touchdown and snatching a pick-six to flip the game on its head in the second quarter. It’s hard to see him suddenly turning things around in another hostile environment.
That means Gunner Stockton and the Georgia offense should get plenty of opportunities to score in the first half. Stockton will particularly enjoy facing a Kentucky team that is struggling to put pressure on the quarterback, and is allowing far too many explosive plays in the passing game.
I will be stunned if the Dawgs aren’t up by at least two touchdowns come halftime. And if Kentucky can’t find any success on the ground, it’ll probably be a much wider margin than that.
Kentucky vs Georgia same-game parlay
Zacariah Branch gets much of the headlines, but Colbie Young actually has more catches and a higher catch rate. He’s had at least 59 receiving yards in each of his last three games and has become a go-to receiver for Stockton.
Kentucky’s secondary will provide an opportunity for him to have a solid game.
Take away the 79-yard run in Kentucky’s opener against Toledo, and Dante Dowdell is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Georgia’s defense held Jam Miller to just 2.9 yards a pop last week, while backup Kevin Riley picked up only 30 yards on 10 carries.
Dowdell isn’t performing nearly as well as McGowan, and I don’t see him busting another big run against this Bulldog front seven.
Kentucky vs Georgia 3-leg SGP
- Georgia -10.5 1H
- Colbie Young Over 45.5 receiving yards
- Dante Dowdell Under 34.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Wildcats tamed
Boley has thrown just two touchdowns so far this season, and both came against Eastern Michigan. In three career games where he’s played significant time against Power 4 opponents, he’s thrown zero touchdowns vs. five interceptions.
With Auburn coming up next week on the road, I won’t be shocked to see Georgia rest starters in the second half after building a large lead. Kentucky still won’t score points, but Smart will call off the Dawgs — pun intended — against his friend Stoops.
Kentucky vs Georgia 5-leg SGP
- Georgia -10.5 1H
- Colbie Young Over 45.5 receiving yards
- Dante Dowdell Under 34.5 rushing yards
- Cutter Boley Under 0.5 passing TDs
- Under 48.5
Kentucky vs Georgia odds
- Spread: Kentucky +20.5 | Georgia -20.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +810 | Georgia -1350
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Kentucky vs Georgia trend to know
Kentucky has hit the 1Q Under in 7 of its last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kentucky vs Georgia.
How to watch Kentucky vs Georgia
| Location | Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Kentucky vs Georgia latest injuries
Kentucky vs Georgia weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
