With a spread of 20.5, the Oregon Ducks taking on the James Madison Dukes is the biggest mismatch in the first round of the College Football Playoff according to the oddsmakers.
And while that’s a big number for Oregon to cover, I’m betting the Ducks' offense will be flying. And by flying, I mean rumbling with the ground game. So, I’ve built a James Madison vs. Oregon SGP for this playoff matchup that highlights just that.
For even more college football picks and analysis for this CFP game, check out my James Madison vs. Oregon predictions.
Our best James Madison vs Oregon SGP for CFP First Round
The Oregon Ducks were always going to be big favorites in this matchup, because they are really damn good.
Oregon has an elite defense with strong tackling, which should limit the James Madison Dukes' propensity for explosive plays. But today, I want to focus on what makes the Ducks fly. The offense. The running game in particular.
The Ducks have arguably the best running game in the country. One that can wear you down over the course of a game, eventually leading to hitting some home runs.
Oregon enters this game leading the nation in both EPA per rush and success rate on rushes. They use a trio of talented backs in Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr., which keeps them fresh and relentless.
Now, James Madison has a solid defense, and dominated the Sun Belt this season, but they haven’t seen anything close to this Ducks offense. The best team they played was Louisville earlier in the season. The Cardinals rank 59th in EPA per play.
With a healthy offensive line and the potential to get their top three receivers back, a balanced Ducks offense is going to be very hard to stop. So, give me Over on their team total of 34.5 to kickoff this SGP.
I mentioned the trio of talented Oregon running backs. Well, my favorite is Jordon Davison. The freshman is built like a truck and has gotten stronger as the year went on.
Davison finished the season with 535 yards at 6.1 yards per carry, with 444 of those yards coming in his last seven games. He’s also become the Ducks' line back and has found the end zone 13 times this season.
Taking Davison to go Over his rushing prop, which is a modest 47.5 and to score another touchdown reads right into the game script for Oregon and makes all the sense in the world for this SGP.
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