Heading into Week 6 of the college football season, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is beginning to run away as the Heisman Trophy odds favorite.
While only five receivers have ever won the Heisman, Smith is the undisputed best player in college football. However, quarterback bias could stop the All-American from taking home college football's top honor.
Week 6 is a huge prove-it week for a pair of SEC QBs looking to overtake Smith, and they're the focus of my Heisman Hedge Fund this week.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
After five weeks of college football, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith has a whopping 49% probability of winning the Heisman Trophy, according to Kalshi. That's after a second straight 200-plus-yard receiving day, this time against a ranked Iowa team that had College GameDay on campus for its matchup with the Buckeyes.
Smith, who opened with a 6% probability of winning the award, has risen up the board each week. He leads the country in receptions (44) and receiving yards (823), and is tied for first in receiving touchdowns (9).
Still, he would be just the sixth wide receiver to ever win the award and the first to solely play wide receiver. Johnny Rodgers (wide receiver/running back), Tim Brown (wide receiver/return man), Desmond Howard (wide receiver/return man), DeVonta Smith (wide receiver/return man), and Travis Hunter (wide receiver/cornerback) all contributed in multiple ways.
That's why the door is still open for QBs like Alabama's Keelon Russell (13%), Miami's Darian Mensah (11%), Notre Dame's CJ Carr (8%), Georgia's Gunner Stockton (4%), and Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss (4%).
And that's why Georgia's Week 6 matchup against Alabama will impact more than just the college football national championship odds.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Week 6 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Devon Dampier, QB |
Buy | 1% | Yes (1¢) |
 Gunner Stockton, QB |
Sell | 4% | No (96¢) |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Hold | 13% | Yes (current price: 13¢/purchase price: 6¢) |
 Julian Sayin, QB |
Penny stock | 1% | Yes (1¢) |
Buy: Devon Dampier, QB, Utah
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 896 passing yards, 11 total TDs, 1 INT, 135 rushing yards
- Key metric: Fourth nationally in big-time throw rate (8.5%)
- Week 6 opponent: vs. Kansas
This is a pure value play. Devon Dampier isn't going to win the Heisman Trophy, but he has Utah looking like the best team in the Big 12, and he certainly shouldn't be priced the same as Texas Tech's Will Hammond.
The Red Raiders came into the season as the Big 12 favorite but have slipped behind the Utes in SP+'s rankings, and the difference at QB is a major reason why. Dampier, who's been must-watch TV since his New Mexico days, is one of the most dynamic QBs in the country.
Consistency, efficiency, and schedule
He's also one of the most consistent and efficient QBs in college football, putting up a QBR of at least 73.1 in all four of Utah's games. Dampier has yet to commit a turnover-worthy play, despite his aggressive downfield passing.
The Utah star is one of only six QBs in the country with an adjusted completion percentage of at least 77% and an ADOT of 10+ yards. And of those six, he's the only one with a pressure-to-sack ratio below 7%.
Utah is 4-0 and one of just 10 programs that are undefeated ATS. Utah also has a favorable schedule; it doesn't play Texas Tech this season, catches Houston at home, and hosts the Holy War against BYU.
There's a real shot that Utah is 8-0 when it plays BYU, and a win against the Cougars could help send the Utes to the Big 12 Championship. I'm expecting Dampier to climb the board in the coming weeks.
Sell: Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia
- Kalshi probability: 4%
- 2026 stats: 1,049 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 1 INT, 122 rushing yards
- Key metric: 88th nationally in ADOT (8.2)
- Week 6 opponent: at Alabama
There's no denying that Stockton's numbers are Heisman-worthy five games into Georgia's season, but the Bulldogs really haven't played any true contenders (sorry, Oklahoma), and his numbers in their biggest game were lackluster.
The Sooners are by far the best team Georgia has played and the only one ranked in the top 50 by SP+. Against Oklahoma, Stockton had a 65.7 QBR with 171 passing yards, one TD pass, and one interception.
Scary schedule against talented defenses & QBs
Yes, Georgia won 41-13, but he's more of a steady facilitator than a dynamic playmaker. Georgia doesn't ask him to push the ball down the field often, and the Bulldogs' schedule gets much tougher starting in Week 6.
Alabama (20%), Florida (19.3%), and Missouri (22%) all rank in the top 25 nationally in havoc rate, and Georgia plays those three across its next five games. It also plays Ole Miss, which arguably has college football's best QB in Chambliss.
If Stockton gets outdueled by any of Chambliss (82.4), Russell (91.0), Missouri's Austin Simmons (78.1), or Florida's Aaron Philo (81.7), it's going to be a tough sell to justify giving Stockton the Heisman.
Hold: Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama
- Kalshi probability: 13%
- 2026 stats: 1,414 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 2 INTs, 184 rushing yards
- Key metric: Sixth nationally in adjusted completion percentage (81.5%)
- Week 6 opponent: vs. Georgia
It's not hard to justify selling Russell's contract for a profit right now, with his price skyrocketing over the last few weeks and Alabama playing Georgia in Week 6. But unlike a few of the other QBs with a probability of 3% or higher, he's actually outdueled star QBs and had major performances in ranked matchups.
Alabama's schedule over the first five weeks wasn't full of cupcakes. He's beaten two ranked teams on the road (Kentucky, Mississippi State) and two talented underachievers that rank much higher than some of the non-P4 programs other contenders have stat-padded against (Florida State, South Carolina).
Ascending five-star talent
The second-year quarterback has started just five games in his career, and every time he's on the field, he looks even better. The five-star talent is for real with Russell, who's third nationally in QBR and has accounted for 13 total touchdowns in his last three games (he hasn't had a QBR below 96.7 since Sept. 12).
With Russell behind center, Alabama ranks 12th nationally in offensive success rate (51.2%) and ninth in EPA per pass. If Russell leads the Crimson Tide to a win over Georgia, there's a chance he's the new Heisman favorite by the end of October.
Penny stock: Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 1,530 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 1 INT
- Key metric: Leads the country in QBR (92.1)
- Week 6 opponent: vs. Maryland
It's not hard to understand why the QB with the highest QBR in college football this season is priced this way, but I still think it's worth a swing to buy Julian Sayin with the purpose of flipping his contract for a profit down the road.
Sayin has better numbers than pretty much every QB priced above him, but the problem is the guy he's throwing to is the runaway favorite. A strong performance from the Buckeyes' QB usually means a strong performance from Smith, who has accounted for more than 50% of Sayin's passing yards and TDs.
I'm Sayin buy low to sell high later
Will Sayin win the Heisman? No. But he was a finalist last year over Smith, despite Smith being the clearly better player. QB bias exists, and that's especially true with the Heisman Trophy.
It's going to be hard to justify keeping Sayin priced this low if he's the QBR leader in November and the quarterback for one of the country's best teams and top offenses. Ohio State leads college football in EPA per pass, is ranked No. 3 on offense by SP+, and is in the top 10 in the country in offensive success rate (51.6%).
If Sayin keeps it up against Indiana, USC, and Oregon in the coming weeks, his price will at least quadruple by mid-November.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
The combo of Smith and Russell, both of whom I added to my portfolio before the season began, has me in good shape. But despite Smith running away as the favorite after the first month of the season, there's no reason to stop making moves now.
According to On3's Brett McMurphy, Louisville's Lamar Jackson was the last Heisman favorite entering October to actually win the award. That means nine straight Heisman favorites after the first month of the season failed to take home college football's top honor.
With that in mind, I'm continuing to focus on adding underpriced QBs to complement my combo of elite players who aren't playing the sport's most important position (Smith, Malachi Toney, Jadan Baugh, Colin Simmons).
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/25¢ |
| Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/8¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/3¢ |
 Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/4¢ |
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/7¢ |
| Devon Dampier, QB |
Week 6 | Buy (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/95¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/98¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/83¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 5 | Sell (No) | 97¢/97¢ |
| Gunner Stockton, QB |
Week 6 | Sell (No) | 96¢/96¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/3¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/11¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Week 5 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Julian Sayin, QB |
Week 6 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
