While many of the top Group of Six teams are taking on Power Four programs in Week 1 to kick off their seasons, several G6 vs. G6 matchups are on the slate that will have College Football Playoff ramifications.
Chief among them, and leading off my Group of Six picks, is Liberty vs. James Madison, a showdown of two of the most well-resourced G6 programs in the country.
My G6 college football picks for Week 1 also include a major Mountain West battle that will go late into the night.
Group of 6 college football picks for Week 1
| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Libertyvs  James Madison |
⬆️ Over 50.5 | 52% |
 Wyoming vs  Colorado State |
⬇️ Under 45.5 | 49% |
 Sam Houston vs  Troy |
Troy -16.5 |
50% |
 Central Michigan vs  New Mexico |
New Mexico -11.5 |
53% |
 UNLV vs  Hawaii |
Hawaii +3.5 |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week for
Liberty vs James Madison: ⬆️ Over 55.5
Both Liberty and James Madison will look far different this season.
Last year, Jamey Chadwell was dealing with an illness, and it impacted the Flames' season. But Liberty's spread-option attack should bounce back this year with additions like Kanye Udoh and Kam Davis.
James Madison replaces almost everything from last year's CFP team in Billy Napier's first season. But the Dukes rebuilt their offense in the portal, and they will have one of the best offensive lines in the G6. That run game is part of why our Chris Vasile is backing the Dukes in his college football moneyline picks.
Points will be coming in this matchup with JMU's defense ranked 130th in returning production (32%) and Liberty's defense ranking outside the Top 90 in EPA per pass and rush last year.
Wyoming vs Colorado State: ⬇️ Under 45.5
Wyoming has been dreadful offensively during Jay Sawvel's tenure, but the former defensive coordinator has also continued to churn out top-ranked units on that side of the ball. It's turned the Cowboys into the best Under team in college football.
Last season, Wyoming's defense was ranked 55th by SP+, was Top 30 in EPA per pass and third/fourth down success, and hit the Under in 10 of 12 games. Its offense was ranked 130th by SP+ and ranked outside the Top 120 in EPA per pass and rush.
Colorado State, meanwhile, is coming off a season in which it was 113th in available yards rate (39.5%), and new head coach Jim Mora Jr.'s offense is 116th in returning production (38%).
This could be ugly.
Sam Houston vs Troy: Troy -16.5
Sam Houston made one of the worst coaching hires of the cycle last year, and it showed when Phil Longo went 2-10 (3-9 ATS) in his debut season with the Bearkats.
Don't expect much to change in Year 2, with Sam Houston starting an entirely portalled offensive line and projected to rank 135th on defense by SP+.
Troy has a massive advantage in the trenches, and its run game should flatten the Bearkats' defense. But it's the Trojans' defense that will make an even bigger difference.
Troy's defense was 31st in EPA per pass last year and returns star pass rusher Donnie Smith (11 sacks). Smith can tee off against a Sam Houston Air Raid attack that doesn't have the talent to succeed.
Central Michigan vs New Mexico: New Mexico -11.5
Though New Mexico was dealt a massive blow to its shot at earning the G6 College Football Playoff spot this year when it was announced that QB Jack Layne will miss the season with an elbow injury, the Lobos are still potent.
Jason Eck is one of the best coaches in the country, and New Mexico's ground attack and defense will expose the talent difference between the Mountain West and MAC against Central Michigan.
Led by Jaxton Eck and Darren Agu, the Lobos' defense is loaded and ranked 36th in EPA per rush last year. That doesn't bode well for a CMU team that ran the ball (41.9 attempts per game) more than double the amount it passed (19.6 attempts per game) last year.
And CMU's great defense from 2025 is gone; it's 131st in returning production (29%).
UNLV vs Hawaii: Hawaii +3.5
UNLV and Hawaii both started the season with Week 0 losses, and while the Rainbow Warriors' was far more heartbreaking than the Rebels', it came on the road against a P4 program.
UNLV losing as a 7.5-point favorite at home to Memphis was a lot uglier, especially after not trailing until the late third quarter.
That kind of loss, followed by a 2,700-mile trip to the Aloha State the next week, is going to be a lot on Dan Mullen's team's shoulders.
And it's hard to feel too much confidence in UNLV QB Jackson Arnold after he took seven sacks last week (holding onto the ball too long has always been his biggest flaw).
With Micah Alejado behind center, Hawaii has the offense (33rd in EPA per pass in 2025) to keep up against UNLV.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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