If last week was an appetizer, the Week 1 college football slate is a holiday feast of college football against the spread picks, with games spanning from Thursday through the finale between SMU and Florida State on Monday.
That means a full array of college football picks, some of which are asking some title-contending blue-blood programs to overcome some massive spreads.
College football picks against the spread for Week 1
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Miami vs  Stanford |
-24.5 |
 East Carolina vs  Alabama |
-27.5 |
 Ball State vs  Ohio State |
-50.5 |
 Boise State vs  Oregon |
+24.5 |
 Texas State vs  Texas |
+30.5 |
 Clemson vs  LSU |
+10.5 |
 Washington State vs  Washington |
-23.5 |
 Wisconsin vs  Notre Dame |
-20.5 |
 Louisville vs  Mississippi |
-6.5 |
 SMU vs  Florida State |
-2.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 1 CFB ATS picks
Miami (-24.5) vs Stanford: Miami -24.5
This is a game Miami won 42-7 a season ago, and Dariah Mensah should have his way with a Stanford defense that allowed 276 passing yards to Hawaii in Week 0.
East Carolina vs Alabama (-27.5): Alabama -27.5
I wouldn't blame anyone for not trusting Alabama after what happened against FSU last year, but East Carolina is turning over all but three starters in addition to two coordinators. Don't expect drama in this game.
Ball State vs Ohio State (-50.5): Ohio State -50.5
Covering a 50.5-point spread usually means getting production late in the game, and Ohio State's second- and third-stringers will be eager enough to keep the scoring coming under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith well after Ryan Day calls off the top dogs.
Boise State vs Oregon (-24.5): Boise State +24.5
This is one of the tougher spreads to call. While Oregon ranks 11th on Bill Connelly's returning production list and is one of the most talented teams in the country, Boise State is much improved and can move the ball with a healthy Maddux Madsen under center and Dylan Riley in the backfield. I'll take the points.
Texas State vs Texas (-30.5): Texas State +30.5
Texas State finished 2025 with four straight wins by an average margin of 24.5 points and ranks 12th in returning offensive production. This will ultimately be a win for Texas, but I have faith that returning quarterback Brad Jackson (led the Sun Belt in completion percentage and yards per attempt in 2025) can move the ball enough to keep this inside the big number.
Clemson vs LSU (-10.5): Clemson +10.5
Whatever you may think of Dabo Swinney and Clemson's program right now, this is a lot to ask of Lane Kiffin in his first game at the helm in Baton Rouge. Both teams went 7-6 last season, but only one is going through a major overhaul. I'm taking the points and wouldn't be shocked at an outright upset.
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Washington State vs Washington (-23.5): Washington -23.5
The Huskies are 15th in returning production compared to Washington State at 109th, and that starts with quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who threw for 3,065 yards and ran for 611 more last season. It also helps that Husky Stadium is one of the liveliest places to play in the nation.
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame (-20.5): Notre Dame -20.5
Notre Dame leads the nation in returning production and will be extra eager to start strong after a 0-2 start kept the Fighting Irish out of the playoffs in 2025. The talent gap between these programs will be on display early and throughout.
Louisville vs Mississippi (-6.5): Mississippi -6.5
I'm all in on the offensive combination of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. I expect a shootout with the Rebels finding some separation in the second half.
SMI (-2.5) vs Florida State: SMU -2.5
Florida State's Week 0 win over NMSU instills very little confidence in those looking to back the Seminoles against a ranked opponent in Week 1. I'll back the Mustangs at anything below a field goal.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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