The Mississippi Rebels aim to move one step closer to a College Football Playoff berth when they host the Florida Gators on Saturday.
Florida needs to win out to reach bowl eligibility, but Ole Miss will be motivated by revenge after last year’s loss to the Gators derailed their playoff hopes.
My Florida vs. Mississippi predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 15, trust Lane Kiffin to punish the team that might soon hire him.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
Florida vs Mississippi prediction
Florida vs Mississippi best bet: Mississippi -11.5 (-108)
The Florida Gators looked stunningly bad in defeat to Kentucky last weekend. It was an all-systems failure for the Gators, as DJ Lagway threw for just 83 yards and three picks in 19 pass attempts. Meanwhile, the defense allowed the Wildcats to rack up 401 yards of offense—a unit that came into the game averaging just 328.7 in conference play.
Kentucky ran for 5.3 yards a carry and Cutter Boley threw for 168 yards while completing 18 of 23 passes. It was by far the most efficient offensive outing of the season for the Wildcats, as they repeatedly gashed the Gators for big plays.
That is why the Mississippi Rebels will cover the spread on Saturday. The Rebels have connected on 59 passes of 10+ yards in their six SEC games, and they’ve hit on 15 catches of 30+ yards and eight catches of 40+ yards — both ranking second in the conference.
The Rebels rank ninth in rushing EPA and 11th in passing EPA, and fourth nationally in quality drive rate. Trinidad Chambliss operates behind one of the best pass-pro units in college football and will have plenty of time against this anemic Florida pass rush.
When forced to throw, the Gators will be in trouble. Ole Miss ranks 11th in EPA/dropback defensively and 19th in late-down success rate. Lagway is expected to start and will likely get pulled at the first sign of trouble.
While the Gators figure out who their quarterback is, Kiffin will be figuring out how to run up the score. He’s not forgotten it was Florida that kept Ole Miss from the playoff last season, and he’ll keep his foot on the gas as he auditions for what could be his next job.
Florida vs Mississippi same-game parlay
Whether it’s Lagway or Trammel Jones Jr, throwing the ball downfield won’t be easy against this Ole Miss defense. As a result, Jadan Baugh should see chances in the short passing game.
He’s coming off 27 yards from five catches against the Wildcats, and he’s had 17+ receiving yards in three straight games.
The Gators have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns through six conference games, and the Wildcats got two scoring runs from Seth McGowan last week.
Kewan Lacey is a workhorse back, with multiple rushing scores in three of his last four outings. He should thrive in this matchup, especially after having just 11 carries last week against Citadel.
Florida vs Mississippi SGP
- Ole Miss -11.5
- Jadan Baugh Over 17.5 receiving yards
- Kewan Lacy to score 2+ touchdowns
Our deep-ball SGP: Rebels come out firing
Turnovers continue to doom this Florida offense, coughing it up four times against Kentucky. That puts them on 11 turnovers in three conference road tilts. Florida is also averaging just 10.3 points per game in four road contests on the season.
Once Ole Miss makes the Gators one-dimensional on offense, it’ll be easy to force them under their team total for the eighth time in nine games.
Chambliss has to be thrilled to face this Gator defense after they gave up two scoring passes to Boley. The Gators have given up multiple touchdown passes in consecutive games, and the Ole Miss quarterback will tear up a Florida secondary that is struggling to prevent yards after catch.
Florida vs Mississippi SGP
- Ole Miss -11.5
- Jadan Baugh Over 17.5 receiving yards
- Kewan Lacy to score 2+ touchdowns
- Florida team total Under 20.5
- Trinidad Chambliss Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Florida vs Mississippi game predictions
Florida vs Mississippi moneyline prediction
It would take an epic collapse from the Rebels to lose this game outright. Florida is dealing with injuries and has little to play for, while Ole Miss has an eye on the CFP and revenge as extra motivation.
Florida vs Mississippi spread prediction
The Gators are 0-4 ATS on the road this season. Read on to see why I’m all over the Rebels to cover the spread against this fading Florida squad.
Florida vs Mississippi Over/Under prediction
I’m leaning Under in this one. Not because I think Ole Miss won’t put up points, but because I’m not sure Florida will contribute enough to help the game reach 55 points.
Florida vs Mississippi odds
- Spread: Florida +11.5 | Mississippi -11.5
- Moneyline: Florida +414 | Mississippi -596
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
Florida vs Mississippi trend to know
Florida has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 66% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Mississippi.
How to watch Florida vs Mississippi
| Location | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS |
| Date | Saturday, November 15, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida vs Mississippi latest injuries
Florida vs Mississippi weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
