Florida State vs NC State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Seminoles Quiet Down Wolfpack

FSU heads to NC State to take on the Wolfpack who are coming off a tough loss against Clemson last week. Will that loss shake up North Carolina State enough to affect them in this game? Our college football betting picks answer that and so much more.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Oct 7, 2022 • 10:10 ET • 4 min read
Jordan Travis Florida State Seminoles College Football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The North Carolina State Wolfpack saw thier summer bluster rendered wrong last week. Clemson dashed any Wolfpack dreams of winning the ACC, which leaves one wondering if North Carolina State has the mental fortitude to bounce back against the underrated Florida State Seminoles. The Wolfpack will have home-field advantage on Saturday night, but perhaps those fans are also a bit dismayed at this point.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Florida State at North Carolina State on October 8, with kickoff set for 8:00 ET.

Florida State vs NC State best odds

Florida State vs NC State picks and predictions

Making a bet solely based on projecting a psychological setback from a bunch of 18 to 22 year olds would be working so hard as an armchair analyst that it may risk wearing out your favorite lounger. That is not a risk to take lightly.

So let’s find further reasons to fade the Wolfpack after that loss at Clemson, but let’s not also blow by that loss. NC State spent the offseason insisting the Tigers were no longer the top dog, errrr, cat in the ACC. Sure, the Wolfpack blew their chance at winning the ACC at Miami and Wake Forest, but it beat Clemson. NC State was adamant about that, and it also continued to gripe about UCLA pulling out of the Holiday Bowl due to coronavirus issues.

All that posturing got the Wolfpack exactly where it has been for years, and now the players must deal with that setback.

They will do so against the Seminoles, which may not yet be getting proper credit for their work this season. The last few years for Florida State has been so rough, most preseason projections expected more of that same from Tallahassee, and those projections are not entirely factored out of current ratings.

These are not those Seminoles. When healthy-ish, the offensive line has shown drastic improvement from the years of debacles. It was exposed last week by Wake Forest, but that was again without three of its Top 6 players from the preseason. There is reason to think left tackle Robert Scott Jr. will play a bit this weekend. “A bit” is vague, intentionally so, but whatever that rotation may look like, it will be an improvement for FSU.

Combine that offensive line with quarterback Jordan Travis’ stellar play this year and the Seminoles are a valid ACC team again. They are not contenders. Clemson doesn’t need to lose sleep. But they are viable.

Competent teams like that — especially ones with a dynamic quarterback and a top-tier defensive end in Jared Verse — are ideal value teams when facing a favorite rife with self-doubt at the moment. Go back in time to any point in North Carolina State history, and self doubt tends to follow any Wolfpack hopes.

My best bet: Florida State moneyline (+135 at BetMGM)

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Florida State vs NC State spread analysis

Before looking up current odds, the thought process here was to suggest taking the spread if the number had reached +4, but after spending some of the week at +3.5, the spread instead settled strongly at +3.

A field-goal spread stands out when considering Florida State. The Seminoles are only 4 of 9 kicking field goals this season. If the Seminoles have a chance to tie the game late with a kick, it seems more likely head coach Mike Norvell avoids challenging his kicker and goes for the win on the road.

Travis is tested at this point. Giving him that chance will not be too bold.

With Scott back protecting his blind side — at least hopefully part of the time — Travis should feel even more comfortable.

Furthermore, to go back to the psychoanalysis, a tight game could flash North Carolina State’s entire season before the Wolfpack’s eyes, while Florida State is still playing with house money at 4-1. Always lean toward the looser team in a close contest.

Florida State vs NC State Over/Under analysis

A 50.5-point total does not create a default handicap simply based on broad trends. Four of Florida State’s five games this season would have cleared that figure, while two of North Carolina State’s five would have, though one of those was against FCS-level Charleston Southern and the other was by half a point against — oh come on, these jests write themselves — FCS-level UConn.

Looking at those team-specific trends, your choice on this total should come down to which team you think will control the game. Agree with the best bet above, and then expect the Seminoles to put up too many points for the Wolfpack to keep up with, though NC State and quarterback Devin Leary should contribute enough to knock the Over.

Disagree and then assume the Wolfpack will slow the game down, perhaps expose Florida State’s offensive line once more, and thus torpedo a chase for the total.

Florida State vs NC State betting trend to know

Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida State vs. NC State.

Florida State vs NC State game info

Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network

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