We all judge a bar by a couple handfuls of categories. How much do drinks cost? How is the music? How crowded is it? How much do we enjoy that crowd?
Are the bathrooms clean? Are the bartenders friendly and/or efficient? How strong are the drinks?
If a bar misses the mark on one of those, we keep that in mind. “Oh yeah, Public Domain is great, but drinks are expensive.” If a bar misses on two of those, we get wary. “You wanna go to Kieran’s? No one entertaining is ever there and the music is terrible, but alright.”
If a bar strikes out on three, it is out. We don’t go, unless … it somehow botches five or six of those categories in such a way that it becomes delightful. “MacKenzie’s, the drinks are cheap and the bartenders are great! What more could you ask for?”
That dive bar is college football. It is not a sterile steakhouse like the Kansas City Chiefs. It does not pretend to be something it is not like the Chicago Bears. Nothing about it is vanilla like the Carolina Panthers.
No, our sport is messy. It is crowded. Some of the crowd throws mustard bottles at the walls. And the bathrooms are clean by comparison. But the games are comedies, and the players are failingly human.
College football Week 1 preview and betting news
- I Would Normally Be in Iowa
- Offensive Lines Matter Most
- Bonus Bet No. 1
- Learn More Than You Bet
- Bonus Bet No. 2
I Would Normally Be in Iowa
Most years, I am driving to Iowa right now to place some futures bets before the season starts. I am not today. Why not?
First of all, conference futures should remain largely static after Week 1. Aside from Kansas State’s loss to Iowa State last week, how many Week 1 results will actually impact conference races? Injuries aside, likely none.
But more notably, national title futures should no longer be a preseason priority. The single elimination, 12-team College Football Playoff has removed almost all value from preseason championship futures.
Instead, you can lean into a moneyline rollover in December and have four months of information at your disposal as you do so. Let’s do some quick math using the current SP+ ratings from ESPN.com as a guiding point in comparison to FanDuel’s current national title odds.
The lowest odds on the board? Texas at +550. Presume a challenging Playoff path akin to facing Georgia, Notre Dame and then Alabama. That path is chosen intentionally as the one laid out for the No. 1 seed in my predicted bracket. Texas would be about a -110 and -120 favorite in those first two matchups, then by current numbers a +110 underdog against Alabama. A moneyline rollover through that would yield +635 odds.
Ohio State is currently +700 in FanDuel’s title odds and the top team in the SP+ ratings. Thus, this projected moneyline rollover will be lower for the Buckeyes than for anyone else, and it would still conservatively yield +425. No, that is not +700, but it also removes the risk of Ohio State missing the Playoff entirely.
My hot take for the 2025 college football season: Ohio State misses the College Football Playoff and it is all because of that school up north. https://t.co/Nx4XRBQh0M pic.twitter.com/T5YRu6dNRV
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 27, 2025
What about Clemson, a trendy title pick? FanDuel: +1200. Moneyline rollover: +1306.
How about Penn State, my title pick? FanDuel: +700. Moneyline rollover: +556. That is a downgrade for me, absolutely. But is tying up my money for four months worth that additional 26%? Personally, no. Especially when factoring in the ability to gather information. The reward of four months of knowledge exceeds the risk of that 26%.
My preseason @Covers College Football Playoff prediction.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 19, 2025
Penn State following the Michigan 2023 and Ohio State 2024 model.
Kalen DeBoer in Year Two.
Clemson's schedule.
Notre Dame's depth. pic.twitter.com/JhL6lHlMYb
An argument might be made to bet some longshots. Washington could make a run to the Playoff, currently at +22500 to win the title. Here is the thing: Arizona State would have been such the longshot last year, and no one making that kind of run is actually going to survive three or four rounds of a single-elimination tournament.
I will pat myself on the back when Penn State wins the national title. I will not bet the Nittany Lions this week.
Offensive Lines Matter Most
This week is more of a guessing game than anyone wants to admit. Roster turnover in modern college football has removed much of our ability to actually know anything heading into the season.
One thing we do know: Bad offensive lines cripple teams; good offensive lines raise a floor.
Look at Cincinnati and Minnesota on Thursday night. Both are lost on the offensive line. In the Gophers’ case, it might be their only flaw, but it will be a ruinous one.
The two offenses combined for 40 points and 5.4 yards per play. That is, simply enough, not good enough.
Related: Cincinnati fell 5.5 points short of an already low team total of 22.5. Minnesota scored just 23 points despite a team total of only 30.
This should not have been a surprise. Bad offensive lines can find some cohesion throughout a season, or an offensive coordinator can scheme up help. But in Week 1? This is our surest bet.
Bonus Bet No. 1
To quickly and simply rip from some preseason notes on Virginia: “Bet Unders early. OL still bad. … Defense returns experience.”
If the spread on this game was at an even two touchdowns, this bet would back Coastal Carolina to cover, but at +13.5, let’s instead suggest the Under.
Betting against bad offensive lines is our surest bet in Week 1.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Coastal Carolina at Virginia Under 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)🏈
Learn More Than You Bet
Week 1 lines have been hammered for months. They are difficult to beat.
You do not need to commit your entire bankroll simply because you haven’t been to our dive bar in seven months. You have five months of fun awaiting you.
Future weeks will be more enjoyable and more profitable if your Week 1 priority is learning. Learn who has the bad offensive lines. Learn what schemes have changed. Learn how bad Kent State is.
So screw it, let's live a little, Merrimack moneyline.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 29, 2025
Also ...
🔸What we learned at Kansas that applies to Georgia Southern.
🔸Southern Miss is Marshall and Mississippi State is still Mississippi State.
🔸Cade Klubnik.
🔸Doubt not in Jeremiah Smith, but in his coaches. https://t.co/DapfLXT3t1
Bonus Bet No. 2
The thought of Penn State winning the national championship. The idea of Ohio State missing the College Football Playoff. Clearly, this space is not high on the Buckeyes this season.
Yet, they get to enjoy the best defensive player in the country this season, and safety Caleb Downs has probably cost Arch Manning some sleep this week.
Steve Sarkisian is not going to let his heralded quarterback lose this road game at Ohio State on Saturday. He is more likely to encourage Manning to protect the ball, to tuck and run when needed.
Arch Manning may end up meeting every piece of hype around him. Only the loudest among us would dare say he should meet that hype this weekend, and they are so loud only for your attention; they do not mean it sincerely.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Arch Manning Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)🏈
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
