Fresh off a blowout win over the Washington Mystics, the New York Liberty will look to add another victory when they take on the surging Phoenix Mercury at PHX Arena on Saturday.
My Liberty vs. Mercury predictions expect Breanna Stewart to ramp up her playing time and production, and for Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to continue shining at home.
Read on for my WNBA picks for Saturday, August 30.
Liberty vs Mercury predictions
My Liberty vs Mercury best bet: Breanna Stewart Over 16.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
New York Liberty star forward Breanna Stewart recently returned from a month-long absence, but she came back seemingly without missing a beat. In her first game back, Stewie finished with 19 points in 21 minutes, and she scored 12 points in 24 minutes in her next game out.
With only two weeks left in the regular season, the Liberty are still jockeying for playoff position, and Stewart’s presence will surely be felt. I expect the Liberty to continue ramping up her minutes, which should result in more scoring opportunities.
On the season, Stewart is averaging 18.1 points per game, including 18.6 on the road and 17.9 at home. She’s finished with 17 or more points in 17 of 26 games overall, including six of nine on the road.
In three matchups with the Phoenix Mercury, Stewart totaled 35, 17 and six points. She’s cleared the Over on this line in two of three games, and I expect her to make that three of four games when she travels to the desert on Saturday.
Even if she plays under 30 minutes, she is still efficient enough to reach 17 points.
Liberty vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Breanna Stewart Over 16.5 points
Satou Sabally 15+ points
Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 assists
Satou Sabally is averaging 16.9 points per game this season, and she’s scored 18.9 at home compared to 14.9 on the road. In three matchups with the Liberty, she scored six, 15, and 25, with the 25-point performance coming at PHX Arena.
She’s reached this scoring milestone in 22 of 32 games, including 11 of 16 at home. I expect another strong performance in what should be a highly competitive contest.
Alyssa Thomas leads the W in assists per game this season with a career-high 9.2. She’s dished 8.9 dimes per game on the road and 9.8 at home, making tonight’s matchup a favorable one. Over her last 10 games, Thomas has averaged 10.2 assists, and over her previous five at home, she’s handed out 10.4 per game.
Thomas has taken her game to a new level with six triple-doubles across her last 10 games, and she finished with 15 assists in her lone home matchup with the Liberty. She should be able to clear this line on Saturday.
Liberty vs Mercury odds
Liberty vs Mercury live odds
Liberty vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: New York -1 (-112) | Phoenix +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -114 | Phoenix -106
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 (-110) | Under 163.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Mercury trend
Phoenix has covered the spread in four of its last six head-to-head matchups with New York. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mercury.
How to watch Liberty vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, August 30, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Liberty vs Mercury latest injuries
Liberty: Nyarra Sabally (Out), Natasha Cloud (GTD), Sabrina Ionescu (GTD).
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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