After a long wait, the first full week of the college football season is finally upon us.
Thursday night is the start of a terrific weekend of action, and most teams will be looking to get their season off to a strong start.
That also means it’s time to look at who might be ready to spring an opening weekend surprise on their opponents.
Here are three underdogs I’m backing to defy the oddsmakers and pull off an upset in our college football picks.
CFB Week 1 upset picks
Texas moneyline (+100)
Toledo moneyline (+285)
Florida Atlantic moneyline (+430)
Texas moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
Texas has had to sit and stew on its heartbreaking loss to Ohio State in the CFP semi-finals for nearly nine months, and revenge will be on the mind. The Longhorns will seek it behind one of the best defenses in all of college football, anchored by an outstanding pass-rush duo.
The pair will be tasked with causing issues for Julian Sayin. The redshirt freshman quarterback will make his first career start on the national stage against a relentless defense, and he will have to fight the urge to get happy feet behind an offensive line that still doesn’t seem to be set in stone.
Many felt that Arch Manning provided the better option at quarterback last season for the Longhorns, and he’ll get to prove it here. Manning's going against a dangerous Ohio State defense, but he’s shown the required poise and decision-making that you’d expect from someone with his last name.
Ohio State is replacing seven starters, including its entire front four, not to mention its defensive coordinator. That will help Manning here, as he will look to rely on a very talented stable of running backs to slow down the Buckeye pass rush.
Coaching may be the biggest decider of this contest. Steve Sarkisian has been phenomenal when given extra time to prepare for an opponent, not to mention he’s one of the best in college football at halftime adjustments.
In a matchup as tight as this one, that sort of advantage cannot be overlooked. Back Texas to get the win outright.
Toledo moneyline (+285 at FanDuel)
Kentucky’s offense was abysmal last season, to put it kindly. Penalties, poor blocking, and sometimes non-existent quarterback play saw the Wildcats finish 111th in passing yards.
Now, the Wildcats have a new quarterback — one who began his college career before COVID was even a thing. Former Texas A&M quarterback Zach Calzada transferred after two seasons at Incarnate Word, and he won the battle to lead an offense returning just three starters from a season ago.
Only two of those starters are on the offensive line, meaning protection problems could be an issue early on. In addition, their top two weapons at receiver are also gone. That’s a tough spot for a quarterback who hasn’t attempted a pass at the FBS level since 2021.
There are also real concerns about the playcalling ability of offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan, who left Boise State just to see their offense thrive after his departure. Meanwhile, the defense's only returning starters are all in a secondary that ranked 112th in opponent completion rate and 105th in yards per pass allowed.
Toledo’s not the team to face when you’re trying to ease in so many new bodies. The Rockets rank Top 15 in returning offensive production, and Tucker Gleason’s back at quarterback.
He’s also got Junior Vandeross III returning at wideout, after catching 85 passes a season ago. They also added Chip Trayanum at running back, a transfer from Kentucky who dealt with injury much of the season.
The Rockets went on the road last season and thumped Mississippi State, and are poised to cause problems for another SEC team trending in the wrong direction. They’re returning a large bulk of their defense as well, including all four starters in arguably the best secondary in the MAC.
Big Blue Nation is already at the breaking point with head coach Mark Stoops. If Toledo can get out to an early lead, we could see the crowd quickly depart or even turn on their team, making an upset even more viable.
Florida Atlantic moneyline (+430 at FanDuel)
My longshot pick of the week is Florida Atlantic, whose offense will present serious problems for Maryland on the road. Head coach Zach Kittley brings his Air Raid offense to FAU, but the former Texas Tech OC isn’t coming alone.
That’s because Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp transferred in, along with Hilltopper wide receiver Easton Messer. The two connected 55 times for 793 yards and four touchdowns last season, and give Kittley a pair who are quite familiar with his quick-attack offense.
The two gave fans a glimpse of what is to come in the spring game, in an offense that added multiple receivers with speed. That’s going to cause issues for the Terps, whose defense over the past few seasons has been fairly lackluster.
Illinois is also handing the offense to Malik Washington, a true freshman. While he’s got plenty of weapons on the outside to get the ball to, the offensive line is in flux with multiple new faces.
Defensively, Maryland has rebuilt much of its secondary. However, they were one of the worst teams in the conference in terms of quarterback pressures and sacks, and what they did achieve came primarily via blitzing.
It’s hard to successfully bring the heat against Kittley’s offense and get stops, and Veltkamp is excellent at getting the ball out quickly and to the right man. That’s going to be important for FAU, whose offensive line has been bolstered after posting some of the worst pass protection numbers in the country last year.
This game feels like it could be a shootout, with both defenses struggling. Maryland will have to pick its poison on defense, and I expect the Owls to put up points. The question for the Terps is whether Washington can keep pace.
The odds are long for a reason, but a shootout gives us a great chance. I’ll back the more experienced quarterback to make plays in key situations, over a true freshman whose line has been piecemealed together.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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