Jalon Daniels had too easy a day against Fresno State last week. If the Kansas star quarterback had been bothered just a little bit more, my college football best bets column would have gone 5-0 last week.
Instead, the Bulldogs could not frazzle the Jayhawks at all. The battle in the trenches was as one-sided as the battle between me and a waffle. And when I eat a waffle, I miss bites more often than Daniels missed passes last week.
He went 18-of-20 for 176 yards and three touchdowns. No wonder he ran the ball just seven times for 40 yards (sack adjusted). As a result, betting on him to score a touchdown and Kansas to clear its team total both lost, dropping this column to an entirely delightful 3-2 and +1.3 units to start the season.
More importantly, a lesson was learned. Fresno State’s defensive line cannot create pressure. Let’s apply that lesson to Week One and some college football predictions.
College football predictions Week 1
Georgia Southern -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Southern Miss +13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Clemson -4 (-110 at Caesars)
Jeremiah Smith Under 77.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Merrimack moneyline (+195 at DraftKings)
Georgia Southern -1.5
Too often, people in this job forget the joy that is going to a game. Do not for a moment mistake my lamenting Jalon Daniels’s successes last weekend as me saying I did not relish every moment of going to Kansas’s decisive victory in the reopening of its stadium. New friendships were strengthened. Laughs were had. Malört cocktails were enjoyed. These are the reasons we love sports.
Related. pic.twitter.com/PWbkwsvFq0
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 23, 2025
Too often, people in the stands forget to apply lessons on the field to future possibilities. Jayhawks fans may think they have an excellent offensive line this year, despite returning just two starters and relying on transfers from Tulsa, North Texas, and Northwest Missouri State as possible pieces. Phil Steele’s annual preseason magazine considers it to be the No. 4 offensive line in the Big 12, but Athlon and Pick Six Previews slot it as the No. 7 and No. 10, respectively.
Let’s not assume it is excellent.
Let’s be sure Fresno State’s defensive line is terrible, has no push, and should be abused most of the season. Former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz will fix that in time, but this unit lost three starters and turned to a Drake transfer for a contribution this season.
Can Georgia Southern capitalize on that? Yes. This offensive line should be a strength, as should the offense as a whole. Add in the asset that was a week of film to study on the Bulldogs, and the Eagles should snag this win.
Southern Miss +13.5
Staying in the Sun Belt, Southern Miss imported nearly all the contributing pieces of Marshall’s conference-winning roster from last year. This is an underappreciated team, now led by former Marshall head coach Charles Huff.
Mississippi State found more talent this offseason, most notably led by former South Alabama running back Fluff Bothwell. Hey, that’s more of the Sun Belt. But the Bulldogs’ defense was atrocious last year, and it should be gashed by Southern Miss quarterback, formerly Marshall quarterback and Sun Belt title game MVP, Braylon Braxton.
An entirely reasonable argument could be made for attacking the Over of 59 (-110 at Caesars), but an Over thought relies on the Eagles scoring points, and at that point, expecting them to stay within two touchdowns is the bet that covers more game states.
Clemson -4
The more veteran quarterback and homefield advantage should be worth more, even if the opponent is a fellow trendy national title pick, LSU.
Let's add some more bets for the week.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 29, 2025
🔸Georgia Tech's physicality tonight
🔸Fading Ohio State, haven't you heard?
🔸How is Clemson not a 4.5- or 6-point favorite at home?
🔸Notre Dame's RB and OL combo should set the pace in Hard Rock Stadium. https://t.co/Nx4XRBQh0M pic.twitter.com/ovfXMxyMYe
Both versions of Tigers have deep rosters with known pieces. Both are led by established coaches. The edges are narrow here.
But LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s aggressive mentality should not bother Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik or offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. And any time the LSU blitz does not get to Klubnik will be a time his drastically improved deep ball could create a score.
Line play establishes a team’s floor. Defensive backs and receivers determine a ceiling. That edge lies with Clemson, in part because of Klubnik’s distinct ability to emphasize it.
Your focus is on LSU vs. Clemson this weekend.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 28, 2025
My focus is on what a few deep touchdowns could do for Cade Klubnik's Heisman campaign. pic.twitter.com/VtR7mAoMzY
Jeremiah Smith Under 77.5 Receiving Yards
Put faith in Texas’s defensive line to create pressure on Ohio State freshman quarterback Julian Sayin while shading a safety toward Jeremiah Smith at all times. The Buckeyes will miss last year’s No. 2 receiver Emeka Egbuka more than most people realize.
Put just as much faith in Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline to adopt his head coach’s ethos of playing conservatively in tight moments. Sure, the Buckeyes won the national championship last year, but that was more because of their defense than anything else. Ryan Day still treasures a risk-adverse lifestyle.
That should lead to an influx of Ohio State rushing and a dearth of passes to Smith, to the frustration of advertising campaigns across Big Ten country, otherwise known as the entire country.
Merrimack moneyline
One could argue Merrimack should be favored on the road against Kent State.
In fact, I am clearly arguing Merrimack should be favored on the road against Kent State. Warriors head coach Mike Gennetti is in his second season as head coach, after 19 years as an assistant at the school in Massachusetts. This is a known roster and system.
It returns the bulk of its offensive skill players, and that was on a team that was outright better than the Flashes.
Merrimack was also 21 spots ahead in 2024's final Sagarin Ratings, roughly 3.5 points better than Kent State to my eye.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 12, 2025
Meanwhile, Kent State has the worst offensive line in the MAC, as well as the worst defensive line. Replacing its top two running backs, quarterback, and four of its five starting offensive linemen will not help the offense that lost the most yards in the country on broken plays in 2024. A quarter of the time, Flashes’ running backs did not even get past the line of scrimmage when given the ball last season.
This roster did not improve.
Head coach Kenni Burns was fired in mid-April for violations of his contract. Those violations? Some version of credit card debt, as he was being sued for exceeding a credit limit at a local bank in Kent. Offensive coordinator Mark Carney now serves as the interim coach, a tenuous standing at best.
Everything is going badly for Kent State. It will be only worse after losing to FCS-level Merrimack.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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