Central Michigan vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Spartan Offense Sputters in Week 1

The Michigan State Spartans will look to start bouncing back from a disappointing 2022 campaign as they host the Central Michigan Chippewas in an in-state rivalry matchup on Friday.

Michigan State finished last season with a 5-7 record, failing to make a bowl game for the second time in three seasons. Central Michigan went 4-8 last year, including a 3-5 conference record in the MAC. 

The Spartans are expected to walk away from this one with a home win, as college football odds have them around two-touchdown favorites, but their offense will be under the microscope after experiencing heavy turnover from last season.

We’ll break down how this one will play out in our free college football picks and predictions for Central Michigan vs. Michigan State tonight.

Central Michigan vs Michigan State best odds

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Central Michigan vs Michigan State picks and predictions

The Spartans may have disappointed fans over the past few years, but they’ll be bringing a new look offense to the table in 2023. After two years as a starter at quarterback, Payton Thorne transferred to Auburn. Last year, Thorne was at least adequate for Michigan State, throwing for 19 touchdowns and 2,679 yards along with 11 picks. His 131.2 passer rating wasn’t out of this world for a college quarterback, but he was hardly the problem.

Michigan State will now turn to two new options behind center. It’s likely that junior Noah Kim will get the majority of the work early, as he’s the favorite to pick up the starting job. Kim appeared sparingly for the Spartans last year, going 14-for-19 with three touchdowns in limited work — though that did include a solid stint in a 49-20 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Redshirt freshman Katin Houser might also get a look. The California native threw a couple passes against the Akron Zips last year, but otherwise hasn’t taken the field, and will be looking to lobby for playing time if he gets any opportunities against Michigan State’s early-season opponents.

Either quarterback will be hoping the Michigan State offensive line is improved, as this has been an area of concern for the Spartans over the last few seasons. The Spartans will also be hoping to get something out of transfer running back Nathan Carter, a sophomore who made the move from the UConn Huskies after two promising — but not incredibly productive — seasons. Last year, Carter only played four games, owing to an injury against the Michigan Wolverines.

There are other questions about Michigan State too, including a shaky kicking game. Overall, the Spartans are bringing back as little offensive talent as any major conference team.

On the other hand, we know Michigan State will play defense. The Spartans have a strong defensive line, which should keep the Chippewas in check. Central Michigan doesn’t know who its quarterback is either, and both Bert Emmanuel and Jase Bauer could see time against Michigan State. Both will likely struggle against the Spartans, who should be able to shut down Central Michigan’s rushing-based attack.

Central Michigan has a solid defense for a mid-major as well, and with the Michigan State offense facing a lot of questions, the Spartans will likely struggle to blow out the Chippewas. With neither team looking likely to score a ton of points here, I’m confident in taking the Under.

My best bet: Under 45.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Central Michigan vs Michigan State same-game parlay

Under 45.5 

Michigan State -14.5

+269 at FanDuel

For my same-game parlay, I’m going to stick with taking the Under in what should be a good game for both defensive units. The hook is nice to have here, as I’d like to make sure I get the win on a lot of common scores that lead to a total of 45.

I’m combining this with a pick of Michigan State to cover the spread. Yeah, the 14.5-point line is ugly, as we need to win by more than two touchdowns to cover. However, the Spartans have a history of taking care of business at home against mid-major opponents. It might struggle in Big Ten play, but Michigan State should coast to victory by the final whistle on Friday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Central Michigan vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

Michigan State opened this game as a 15-point favorite. That number hasn’t budged much, though Spartans -14.5 is now the consensus line, with most books offering -110 on both sides of the spread at that number.

Both teams struggled against the spread in 2022. Last year, Michigan State went 4-8 ATS, while Central Michigan put up a 4-7-1 ATS record.

Michigan State started last year’s campaign with a couple of home games against mid-major opponents. In both cases, they won by at least three touchdowns, with the closer game being a 35-13 win over the Western Michigan Broncos in their opener — an opponent of similar level to the Chippewas. I’m leaning towards the Spartans covering again on Friday.

The total on this game opened at 51.5 points. However, it has rapidly dropped, and nearly all books now have the Over/Under at a much more reasonable 45.5 points. The Under is still a slight favorite even at that number, with most books offering -105 on the Over and -115 on the Under.

The Under went 7-5 in Michigan State games last season. The Chippewas were a dead even 6-6 against the total last year.

The Under is my best bet for this game. We can have some confidence on the defensive side for both teams, while both squads also have plenty of questions to answer on the offensive end. Yes, the number has come down significantly, but as long as we stay above 45 points, the Under is definitely the side to play here.

Central Michigan vs Michigan State betting trend to know

The Under went 2-0 in Michigan State home games against non-conference opponents last season. Find more college football betting trends for Central Michigan vs Michigan State.

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