Championship Saturday promises drama across the board — except, perhaps, in the Big 12 title game.
Texas Tech and BYU meet again at AT&T Stadium in a rematch of their November 8 showdown, a game that could generously be labeled a beatdown. The Red Raiders’ defense smothered the Cougars then, and Texas Tech enters the championship as a near two-touchdown favorite.
Yes, the stakes may be higher for BYU, which likely needs a win to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt. But my BYU vs. Texas Tech predictions and college football picks expect a familiar script to play out on December 6.
BYU vs Texas Tech predictions for the Big 12 Championship
Who will win the Big 12 Championship?
Texas Tech. There's a reason why the Red Raiders are nearly two-touchdown favorites in the Big 12 title game.
It's mostly thanks to an elite defense that overpowered the Cougars when they met back in November.
BYU vs Texas Tech best bet: Texas Tech -12.5 (-110)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders enter the Big 12 Championship with an 11-1 record and ranked fourth in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. So, even a loss in the conference title game seemingly won’t knock the Red Raiders out of the field.
That said, I’m not expecting a loss here. Or even a close game for that matter.
The Red Raiders have risen up the rankings thanks to one of the best defenses in the country. Led by defensive end David Bailey and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, the Red Raiders lead the nation in opponent EPA per play and are third in defensive success rate.
The BYU Cougars are also 11-1, and have been a great story this season with freshman QB Bear Bachmeier; the difference is that the loss came against the Red Raiders back on November 8. And that was the first time that Bachmeier really looked like a freshman this season.
The Red Raiders and their NFL-quality defensive line overwhelmed Bear Bachmeier and the Cougars, holding them to 2.5 yards per carry while limiting Bachmeier to 23-for-38 passing for 188 yards with a touchdown and a pick in an eventual 29-7 Red Raiders win.
But that final score could have easily been 49-7. The Texas Tech offense stalled in the red zone a few times, settling for five field goals.
I’m not expecting BYU's offensive opportunities to suddenly improve with a venue change, especially since the change isn’t to Provo. Neither do oddsmakers, to be fair, who set this spread at nearly two touchdowns.
On top of that, the Red Raiders' offense should convert one or two of those field goals into touchdowns this time around. With that, plus a national championship–caliber defense, I’m all in on Texas Tech making the Big 12 title game a bit of a blowout.
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BYU vs Texas Tech same-game parlay
The Red Raiders' awesome defensive front just overpowered the Cougars' offensive line back in November. Now, they only sacked Bear Bachmeier once in that game, but they consistently collapsed the pocket to the point where there weren’t even holes for him to escape, and he ended up with just 12 rushing yards.
BYU needs Bachmeier upright in this game to have a chance. That means getting the ball out quickly and not taking big hits. Plus, an extra sack or two could really crush his rushing prop, which sits at 30.5.
Meanwhile, if the Red Raiders want to convert some more of those red zone opportunities, they should keep looking at wideout Caleb Douglas.
Douglas is cooking right now, 25 receptions for 409 yards over his last five games, finding the endzone six times, including in the last matchup against BYU. Adding him to score another TD here looks like a good bet.
BYU vs Texas Tech SGP
- Texas Tech -12.5
- Bear Bachmeier Under 30.5 rushing yards
- Caleb Douglas anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Paydirt Parlay!
This is in case the Big 12 title game isn't a bore. Odds are likely that Red Raiders RB Cameron Dickey scores as well.
And if BYU gets something going, my money is on RB LJ Martin and WR Chase Roberts finding the end zone.
BYU vs Texas Tech SGP
- Cameron Dickey anytime touchdown
- Caleb Douglas anytime touchdown
- LJ Martin anytime touchdown
- Chase Roberts anytime touchdown
BYU vs Texas Tech game predictions
BYU vs Texas Tech spread prediction
As noted, I'm on Texas Tech to cover the spread and I would back them up to -13.5. The Red Raiders defensive line caused all sorts of problems for BYU QB Bear Bachmeier and they were the first team to make him look like a true freshman this season. I expect hiim to be flustered again on Saturday.
BYU vs Texas Tech Over/Under prediction
I have a slight lean to the Over here for a few reasons. I think Texas Tech will be able to create some short fields through turnovers and then in turn convert those into more touchdowns this time around. The Red Raiders will do the heavy lifting here.
BYU vs Texas Tech odds
- Spread: BYU +12.5 | Texas Tech -12.5
- Moneyline: BYU +385 | Texas Tech -500
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
BYU vs Texas Tech trend to know
Texas Tech has covered the spread in 11 of its last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for BYU vs Texas Tech.
How to watch BYU vs Texas Tech
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Saturday, December 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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