The college football playoff picture transformed dramatically over the weekend as favorites fell, underdogs roared, and the betting markets scrambled to adjust. With the season entering its critical stretch, expert analyst Brad Powers cuts through the noise to reveal which teams are legitimate contenders, which programs are spiraling, and where savvy bettors should place their money in Week 11.
From Georgia's controversial finish to Indiana's stunning ascent, Powers delivers sharp insights and NCAAF picks that challenge conventional wisdom and expose the shifting power dynamics reshaping college football's landscape.
Kent State vs 
Ball State best bet
Pick: Ball State -2.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Ball State vs. Kent State represents a pure power ratings play, where the numbers suggest the market has significantly mispriced the matchup. The disparity Powers identifies makes this a straightforward value bet based on team strength differentials.
Texas A&M vs 
Missouri best bet
Pick: Texas A&M -6 (+100 at FanDuel)
Powers' pick for Texas A&M vs. Missouri combines power ratings with situational analysis.
"It's a one-factor handicap," he explains. "Missouri is starting a true freshman, third string quarterback in his first career start."
This devastating situational disadvantage for Missouri creates an almost insurmountable challenge against a quality opponent like Texas A&M. Sometimes the simplest handicapping angles are the strongest, and Missouri's quarterback situation represents exactly the kind of clear edge sharp bettors seek.
James Madison vs 
Marshall
Pick: Over 55 (-108 at FanDuel)
Marshall has consistently been hitting the Over lately, and not by a small amount.
"They have had each of their last five games go over the total, by an average of 22 points per game," Powers says. "It's very tough for the market to catch up with a team that's running some pace and they have a pretty good passing quarterback."
Powers also likes what he's seen from JMU.
"They put up 63 points and 52 points in their last two games against two really good teams in the Sun Belt, two teams that are better than Marshall," he says. "They've kept the foot on the pedal in the second half and they'll do it again here."
Oregon vs 
Iowa
Pick: Oregon -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Powers believes the Ducks are being greatly undervalued.
"You probably should be looking at a line of Oregon -10," he says. "Why is it not -10? Well, there could be some weather in there so some suppression on the scoring, but I still can't get anywhere near why this line shouldn't be above a touchdown. We're laying -6.5 with Oregon and keep in mind Indiana was favored by -9 at Iowa, and didn't cover, but Oregon was favored by a touchdown over Indiana. I think this is a really cheap price here when when you're comparing lines."
Bowling Green vs 
Eastern Michigan
Pick: Eastern Michigan -2 (-118 at FanDuel)
Powers likes Eastern Michigan, but this is really a play against his alma mater, as the Falcons have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons lately.
"They're dealing with a lot of problems," he says. "In fact, their last three games they have failed to cover the spread by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. BG likely is going to be starting a fourth string quarterback in this game, they've had three players arrested after the game last week for assault. The locker room is disjointed and they fired the offensive coordinator this week. So we're gonna play against BG and we're going to lay the two points with Eastern Michigan."
The Georgia "bad beat" that wasn't
The most talked-about moment from Week 10 wasn't a touchdown or a defensive stand; it was a knee. Georgia's decision to take a knee rather than score in their game's final moments sent shockwaves through the betting community, but Powers offers a contrarian perspective on what many are calling the weekend's worst bad beat.
"I could have crawled to the end zone, and he takes a knee. Right. Smart football play to end the game, but if you bet Georgia like I did, it's tough because you'd like to win that one whenever you get an opportunity."
While the frustration is palpable for Georgia backers, Powers argues that Florida was actually the right side in this matchup. The smart football decision that cost bettors their covers reveals a deeper truth about the unpredictability of college football betting: sometimes the right process leads to the wrong result, and sometimes what looks like a bad beat is actually a warning sign about a team's true strength.
Miami's stunning collapse
Perhaps no team epitomizes the past weekend's chaos more than Miami. The Hurricanes entered as heavy favorites but suffered a devastating loss that Powers suggests shouldn't have surprised anyone paying attention to the underlying trends.
"Miami's just 7-5 in their last 12 games. Four of the five losses came as a large favorite, losing outright. Not covering, not failing to cover. I'm talking about losing the games."
This pattern of underperformance as favorites reveals a fundamental weakness in Miami's program that the betting markets have been slow to recognize. The Hurricanes' inability to handle expectations when favored heavily suggests deeper issues with preparation, mental toughness, or coaching that make them unreliable in high-pressure situations.
The Rise of the unexpected elite
In a season defined by surprises, two teams have emerged from the chaos to establish themselves as the nation's true elite, and one of them nobody saw coming.
"Ohio State and Indiana are starting to separate themselves from the rest of the country," he says. "Both I would favor by more than a field goal over anybody else right now."
Ohio State's position at the top isn't shocking, but their pairing with Indiana represents one of college football's most remarkable stories. The Hoosiers' transformation from perennial also-ran to legitimate national title contender defies decades of program history and market expectations.
"Indiana was the biggest upgrade in my power ratings last year. You know who the biggest upgrade in my power ratings from the start of season this year? Indiana. Again."
This isn't a fluke or a lucky streak. Powers' data-driven analysis shows Indiana has been systematically improving for two straight years, building momentum that has culminated in their current status as a top-two team nationally. Their journey from long-shot playoff odds to genuine contender represents the kind of program transformation that reshapes conferences and challenges traditional hierarchies.
The ACC's dwindling hopes
While Indiana rises, an entire conference appears to be falling. The ACC's playoff aspirations took a devastating hit with Miami's loss, and Powers sees little hope for multiple conference representatives in the playoff field.
The conference that once seemed poised to send multiple teams to the playoff now faces the harsh reality of likely sending only one team, a dramatic shift that reflects both the conference's overall weakness and the unforgiving nature of the new playoff format. Miami's collapse as a heavy favorite wasn't just a bad loss, it was potentially the death blow to the ACC's relevance in this year's playoff race.
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The Deion Sanders dilemma
No coaching situation in college football generates more headlines than Deion Sanders at Colorado, but Powers suggests the story may be approaching its conclusion. After a promising start, Colorado has experienced a dramatic downturn that, combined with Sanders' personal health concerns, raises serious questions about the program's future.
"I would put it as a favorite that he's not the head coach next year," Powers says. "Not that he's going to be fired or anything, but obviously I think it'll be more of a situation where he steps away."
The combination of on-field struggles and off-field health issues creates a scenario where Sanders' departure wouldn't be a failure but rather a mutual recognition that the situation isn't sustainable. Colorado's trajectory under Sanders from media sensation to struggling program illustrates the difference between generating attention and building a winning culture.
Navigating the new college football landscape
As Week 11 approaches, the college football landscape looks dramatically different than it did just weeks ago. Traditional powers struggle while unexpected contenders rise. Coaches once thought secure face uncertain futures while programs long dismissed demand respect. The betting markets, slow to adjust to these new realities, create opportunities for those willing to challenge conventional wisdom.
Success in understanding and betting college football requires more than following narratives or trusting reputation. It demands rigorous analysis, systematic evaluation, and the courage to fade public perception when the data points in a different direction. Whether it's recognizing Indiana's legitimate elite status, understanding Miami's fundamental flaws, or identifying the simple but powerful edge in Missouri's quarterback situation, the sharpest insights come from those willing to look beyond the obvious.
