Bowl season is officially rolling, which means the calendar is packed with neutral-site matchups, new-look depth charts, and a little bit of beautiful chaos. With the postseason underway, college football expert Brad Powers is back with a fresh set of bowl game picks built for the quirks that only December can deliver.
From teams treating a trip like a vacation to others playing like it’s a mission statement, the edges can be small and the swings can be wild. Brad’s here to sort the noise from the numbers and spotlight his best bets for the upcoming slate. Let’s get to it.
Check out his NCAAF picks and analysis below.
Texas Bowl: 
LSU vs 
Houston best bet
Pick: Houston -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Powers likes Houston to cover as a small favorite for a simple reason: The Tigers' coaching chaos.
"LSU is dealing with an interim coach, and interim coaches are 0-3 so far in bowl games," he explains. "That includes a couple of blowout losses where teams looked totally disorganized."
Add to that a cluster of player opt-outs and a de facto home-field edge for the Cougars,
"The Texas Bowl is played in Houston, Texas and you've got to give Houston a home field advantage," Powers says. "They'll be excited to be there, LSU won't."
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Sugar Bowl: 
Mississippi vs 
Georgia best bet
Pick: Georgia -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Mississippi may have won its first round game against Tulane, but Powers wasn't overly impressed.
"Tulane moved up and down the field, gaining 400 yards of offense," he says.
The Rebels will now face a Bulldogs team that's had plenty of time to prepare.
"Kirby Smart is 7-1 in the last eight times he's has extra time to prep in the postseason," Powers says. "The loss was his last game against Notre Dame and I think he'll want to atone for that. I like Georgia comfortably."
Hawaii Bowl: 
Cal vs 
Hawaii lean
Pick: Over 52.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Powers respects what Hawaii has done defensively this season, but notes that it was against some of the weaker offenses in the country.
"Last I checked Cal's starting quarterback is going to play and that's a positive for the Over," he notes. "I also think Cal will be excited to be there, as will Hawaii, who haven't played in a bowl game in three or four years. This is not a big bet for me - it's a pizza bet."
First Responder Bowl: 
Florida International vs 
UTSA lean
Pick: Over 59.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Fans of FIU and UTSA may not see a lot of familiar faces when these two teams meet on December 26.
"Florida International is going to be without all four starters in its secondary, which is a big advantage for UTSA, who has their starting quarterback in this one," Powers notes.
On the flip side, UTSA will be without seven starters on defense. This is a classic "take the Over" scenario as both defenses bleed points.
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Dominance and shortcomings in the first playoff weekend
Two truths emerged from the first weekend: trench dominance travels, and the scoreboard can lie. Miami's front reintroduced the idea that a defensive line can still control an elite game, collapsing Texas A&M's rushing identity and hitting the quarterback repeatedly. Holding the Aggies to half their typical ground output while racking up seven sacks, the Hurricanes showcased a blueprint that still wins when bowl rosters are in flux: pressure and disruption.
"That Miami defensive front seven is what a national title caliber unit looks like," Powers says. They got seven sacks on Texas A&M, which had only given up 12 sacks all season."
Alabama, meanwhile, moved on, but not without caveats. The comeback made headlines; the tape said something more sobering. With only 28 rushing yards and a series of Oklahoma blunders paving the comeback path, it was a reminder to treat results with nuance. In a postseason defined by chaos, the how often matters more than the final number.
"The scoreboard was better than the box score," Powers observes. "I wasn't overly impressed. You got to give him credit for overcoming a 17-nothing deficit, but it was more terrible Oklahoma plays."
What an expanded playoff does - and doesn't - solve
The coming 16-team playoff should quiet some of the noise about Group of Five access and blowouts... at least on paper. More bids mean more pathways and fewer snubs. But skepticism is warranted: widening the bracket doesn't guarantee competitive balance. Early rounds could still feature talent and depth disparities, especially if top seeds keep their stars and lower seeds lose them to the professional or portal calculus.
The harder conversation is about selection standards. If the goal is the best football in January, reputation and autopilot bids may not be enough. A cleaner, merit-first approach resonates in an era where availability, not brand, decides matchups.
"The easiest fix of all is just common sense," Powers claims. "Let's just put the 12 best teams in."
Awards chatter and conference championship scenarios will always color the debate, but in this new postseason, they're context, not destiny. Depth and health by late December are worth more than any trophy case, and seeding should reflect who can actually play, not merely who shined in October.
Reading the market: betting insights and actionable bowl picks
With volatility now priced into most lines, the edge comes from patience and precision. Waiting for late information, sometimes up to the morning of kickoff, has become the sharpest play. Lines swing on one opt-out tweet, so bettors should scale unit size to certainty, track beat reporters closely, and favor teams with continuity in offensive play-calling and defensive leadership.
