There are 33 new head coaches in college football this year. I will focus on the new head coaches in the Power 4 conferences and give you a “buy, sell, or hold” declaration for five of them, including Lane Kiffin at LSU.
Read below for the latest college football win totals I'm attacking, adding to my win total best bets I made last week relying on my college football power rating system.
Buy: 
Kansas State head coach Collin Klein
Best Bet: Kansas State Over 7.5 wins (-125 at bet365)
I think the Collin Klein hire is flying under the radar.
The Kansas State Wildcats program was an underachiever under former coach Chris Klieman. The Wildcats lost nine games outright the last three seasons as a favorite (three each year) and still managed to win eight, eight, and six games.
The Wildcats were much better than their 6-6 record last season suggests, as they were 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
Klein has great familiarity with Kansas State, having been a star QB here while also serving as an assistant coach from 2017-2023. Kansas State brings back six starters on offense, led by QB Avery Johnson, who I think will have his best season yet under Klein.
The schedule is another big reason I’m a believer in the Wildcats this year.
Kansas State avoids Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah, arguably the top three teams in the Big 12. They get Houston and Arizona at home and could be favored in as many as 10 games.
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Buy: 
UCLA head coach Bob Chesney
Best Bet: UCLA Over 5.5 wins (-150 at bet365)
There might not be a bigger coaching upgrade this season than new UCLA Bruins head coach Bob Chesney compared to former coach DeShaun Foster.
While Chesney is not a big name, he has consistently won at every level he has coached. That includes Division II Assumption, FCS Holy Cross, and the last two years at James Madison, highlighted by leading the Dukes to the CFB Playoffs last year.
He inherits a solid situation, as UCLA returns 21 players on their roster who were full-time FBS starters last season, led by QB Nico Iamaleava. Chesney brings with him eight James Madison players who were full-time starters last year. The Bruins rank No. 9 in Bill Connelly’s returning production.
Chesney’s teams have shown remarkable consistency, as he has won at least six games in 14 of his 15 full seasons as head coach (excluding the shortened 2020 COVID season).
My power ratings project UCLA as favorites in five games this season, with three more games as listed as short underdogs (at Cal, at Maryland, Illinois). I think 6-6 is the most likely record.
Sell: 
Penn State head coach Matt Campbell
Best Bet: Penn State Under 9.5 wins (-150 at bet365)
Considering the Penn State Nittany Lions missed on several high profile names in their coaching search, I think Matt Campbell was a solid get late in the process. However, I don’t think Campbell is that big an upgrade over James Franklin, if at all.
I also have serious questions on how Campbell will handle the higher expectations. At Iowa State, Campbell’s teams were at their best when expectations were low, and routinely disappointed when expectations were high. A 9.5-win total, the highest of any first-year coach, is the definition of high expectations.
Why are those expectations high? It starts with Campbell bringing in a ton of Iowa State transfers with him. Twenty-three players in total transfer in from Iowa State including 13 full-time starters, led by QB Rocco Becht.
However, those are the same players that managed an 8-4 record vs. Big 12 competition last fall and will now be playing a tougher conference schedule.
On3 ranks Penn State’s portal class at only No. 54. Safe to say, I think this is a less talented team than last year’s squad, which had nine players at the NFL combine and 12 other players who played at least 200 snaps transferring out to other Power 4 programs.
The schedule seems favorable on the surface. I could see Penn State as favorites in as many as 10 contests, with the games in question being vs. USC, at Michigan, and at Washington.
Do you trust Matt Campbell to sweep the other nine games? I don't.
Campbell has lost as an outright favorite 17 times in his last five years at Iowa State, including at least three games each season.
Sell: 
Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers
Best bet: Under 5.5 wins (-125 at BetMGM)
I’m not only selling Matt Campbell’s new school, but I’m also selling the school he just left.
Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers takes over for the Iowa State Cyclones, and it is his third different school in three years. Campbell left an empty cupboard as Iowa State returns not a single starter from last season, the only Power 4 conference school to do so.
While Rogers brings in 15 transfers from Washington State, only two of those players were full-time transfers. On3 ranks Iowa State’s transfer portal class dead-last among Power 4 conference teams.
Iowa State ranks only No. 102 overall in Bill Connelly’s returning production, which accounts for incoming transfers.
My power ratings project Iowa State as a clear favorite (more than three points) in only two games (SE Missouri State and Bowling Green). I do not think a bowl game is on the table in 2026.
Hold: 
LSU head coach Lane Kiffin
If we’re going off headlines, the biggest hire this offseason was Lane Kiffin going from Mississippi, where he led the Rebels to the playoffs only to leave for the “greener pastures” of the LSU Tigers.
When you factor in Kiffin and LSU also signing the No. 1 transfer portal class (according to 247), the general public and media is expecting a playoff run this year in Baton Rouge. However, the betting markets are less optimistic, with LSU’s win total set at 8.5 at most shops. There was an early “buy” on Under 9.5 wins.
My power ratings have LSU projected at 8.5, so I agree with the tepid expectations. There are six games on their schedule (at Mississippi, vs. Texas A&M, at Auburn, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas, and at Tennessee) that I project the line to be less than a touchdown. It’s tough seeing LSU going 4-2 in those while sweeping the other six games.
I will talk more specifically about LSU’s transfer portal players, as well as other portal players and classes, on Friday.
