Week 2 provided us with a lot of insight into the college football season we are about to witness.
We know John Mateer makes Oklahoma legit, we know Joey Aguilar is a fun story at Tennessee, and we know we won’t stop hearing about Arch Manning anytime soon.
But what exactly does it mean for Week 3? My Triple Option column looks at the matchups for all three of those guys and brings you my college football picks for each.
College football best bets Week 3
John Mateer u42.5 rushing yards (-114)
Georgia -4.5 (-105)
UTEP +23.5 1H (+100)
John Mateer Under 42.5 rushing yards
As the chairman of the John Mateer fan club, this bet may seem a little confusing at first. However, it’s all about the long game for the Oklahoma Sooners’ dual-threat quarterback.
Mateer was awesome in Oklahoma’s win over Michigan last week. The QB was rumbling all over the Wolverines — carrying the ball a whopping 19 times for 74 yards and two touchdowns — and he's now a co-favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
However, it was also apparent he was taking some big hits. Brent Venables and the Sooners’ coaching staff know Mateer needs to be healthy if they truly want to be contenders in the SEC.
Additionally, Oklahoma’s upcoming conference schedule is extremely challenging. So, with a matchup against lowly Temple on tap for this week, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sooners' game plan involved running the ball much less with their star QB.
Case in point, Mateer ran the ball just seven times for 24 yards in a season-opening win against Illinois State.
The Sooners are more than three-touchdown favorites against the Owls; they shouldn’t need Mateer to go crazy running the football to win this one. Get the W, get out healthy, and prepare for your SEC opener against Auburn next week.
Georgia -4.5
Joey Aguilar and the Tennessee Volunteers have been a great story early in this college football season.
The former App State and UCLA transfer quarterback has looked like a perfect fit in Josh Heupel’s system with the Vols opening with a solid 45-26 win over Syracuse, followed by a 72-17 destruction of FCS East Tennessee.
Not only are the Vols winning, they're covering the spread. However, things will get a little tougher for Aguilar and Tennessee when Georgia comes to Knoxville this week.
It’s crazy, but it feels like not enough people are talking about the Bulldogs — one of the best teams in the country. My best guess is people don’t have much stock in QB Gunner Stockton.
But like some of Kirby Smart’s classic Georgia teams, the Dawgs are so much more than the QB. Specifically, this Georgia defense is the best we’ve seen since it won back-to-back championships.
The Bulldogs haven’t faced anyone of note yet, but that doesn’t change the fact the Dawgs have only allowed one touchdown so far this season — a garbage-time one at that against Marshall.
This is a defense once again loaded with NFL talent, and there is no one better at shutting down a Heupel offense than Smart. Since Heupel has come to Tennessee, the Vols are 0-4 straight up and against the spread, scoring just 14.3 points per game and never topping more than 17 points.
I'll lay the points with the somewhat overlooked Bulldogs.
UTEP first half +23.5
I truly think Arch Manning is going to be better than what we’ve seen in the past two games, but as I sat and watched the halftime show for Illinois-Duke, the ESPN broadcast did nothing but talk about Manning’s first-half performance vs. San Jose State.
Despite throwing two touchdowns in the first half of that game, including an 83-yarder, I remained unimpressed. Manning’s passes were consistently underthrown, and his timing was off.
He ended the game 19-for-30 for 295 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, in what felt like a lackadaisical 38-7 win over the Spartans, failing to cover the 37-point spread.
Next up for Manning and the Longhorns is the UTEP Miners.
UTEP appears to be much improved compared to its 3-9 season. Scotty Walden has built a sneaky talented roster that will have a chance to be competitive in the CUSA this season, and that starts with transfer QB Malachai Nelson.
Nelson is the former No. 1 overall recruit in the nation who initially committed to USC before transferring to Boise State and then landing in El Paso. He's looked solid in two games and has some talented skill position players to work with.
But it’s UTEP’s defensive line that makes me think the Miners can be competitive for a bit on Saturday. While undersized, UTEP has a fast defensive front led by tackle KD Johnson.
If the Miners can pressure Manning up the middle and force some bad throws, I think they can keep this game within three touchdowns at half.
Now, do I think Steve Sarkisian can make some adjustments at halftime and make the full-game total a sweat? Sure. So, let’s stick to the first-half spread.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 3
John Mateer Under 42.5 rushing yards
Georgia -4.5
UTEP first half +23.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
