Arkansas vs Alabama Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Topping the Total in Tuscaloosa

Alabama moved to 5-1 with a win over Texas A&M last weekend and now faces Arkansas in Tuscaloosa as a 20-point favorite. And while we expect another win for Bama, our college football betting preview expects two-way scoring.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Oct 14, 2023 • 07:55 ET • 4 min read
Jalen Milroe Alabama Crimson Tide SEC college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Arkansas Razorbacks are heading to Bryant-Denny Stadium for an SEC matchup against the No. 11-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.

The college football odds favor Alabama by as many as 20 points, and we’ve located the best bet with the best price possible for this important SEC tilt. 

With Alabama looking to move to 6-1, I break down my free college football picks in my Arkansas vs. Alabama betting preview below.

Arkansas vs Alabama best odds

Arkansas vs Alabama picks and predictions

This SEC matchup features two very good offenses, which is why I'm backing the Over with my best bet.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson is having a fantastic senior season, throwing for 1,300 yards with a dozen TD passes alongside six interceptions. Wideout Andrew Armstrong is his top target, and the senior has responded with 35 receptions for 437 yards with four TD receptions. Arkansas boasts seven different players with a receiving TD and four with 100+ receiving yards.

Jefferson is also the third-leading rusher for an offense with a pair of RBs and nearly 200 rushing yards apiece. Raheim Sanders missed the first three contests and hasn’t done much since returning, but the Razorbacks offensive line hasn’t blocked well, the rushing production is down from 2022, and the O-line has allowed 23 sacks.

On top of that, this isn’t the stifling Alabama defense of old and the Razorbacks will find ways to contribute to the scoring.

The Crimson Tide boast the 14th-best scoring defense in the country. They're tough against the rush and usually even better against the pass, but that secondary could be weakened if safety Malachi Moore doesn’t dress. Alabama's defensive line averages a hearty 3.67 sacks per game, and the rushing defense allows just 106 yards per game.

The Tide offense has shined at times and sputtered other times, but sophomore QB Jalen Milroe is their guy. He leads an improving Alabama offense behind a messy offensive line, allowing 26 sacks this season.

Milroe has thrown nine TD passes and scampered for four more, while Jermaine Burton leads a WR corps with four TD receptions after hauling in 197 yards and two scores against Texas A&M last week. Jase McClellan is their top ground gainer for the nation's 84th-best rushing offense. 

The offense is starting to come around and I expect it to put plenty of points on the board against Arkansas.

Arkansas brings the 69th-best scoring defense to Bryant-Denny Stadium. They’ve allowed 27+ points in each of their previous four contests with the 47th-best rushing defense alongside the 52nd passing defense. The Razorbacks boast an above-average pass rush with 19 passes defended and seven picks, with three of those picks going for TDs. 

Finally, Arkansas is playing its fourth consecutive road game, but the offense is starting to score points, and as we’ve seen, Alabama sometimes struggles to contain dual-threat QBs.

Milroe is beginning to play confidently and has some explosive weapons at his disposal. They’ll score against a softer Arkansas defense and the Crimson Tide will benefit from playing at home after two difficult away games. On top of all of that, the weather should be perfect for football.

My best bet: Over 46.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Arkansas vs Alabama same-game parlay

Over 47 (-110)

Arkansas TT Over 13.5 (+100)

I really believe the Razorbacks offense can score against this Bama defense. Arkansas has scored 20+ in each of their past three road games and we’ve seen Alabama's defense struggle at times.

I see the Razorbacks finding the endzone and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a defensive score.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Arkansas vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

The Over 46.5 is my favorite play on the board, but here are some additional notes for Saturday’s SEC tilt.

Arkansas hasn’t won a game in Tuscaloosa since 2003 and has dropped 15 straight games dating back to 2007. The Razorbacks are 2-3 ATS over their past five meetings with Alabama.

Raheim Sanders, KJ Jefferson, AJ Green, and Rashod Dubinion lead a Razorbacks offense that accounted for 90% of last season's offensive production but is well below that production this season.

Alabama has won 16 consecutive matchups against unranked opponents and improved to 120-4 (.968) against unranked opponents under head coach Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide is also 75-11 against SEC squads under Saban.

Crimson Tide punter James Burnip ranks fifth nationally in yards averaged per punt but is listed as questionable for Saturday with a leg injury. 

Arkansas vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in Arkansas' last six road games and 5-0 in Alabama's last five games following an ATS win. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas vs Alabama.

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Arkansas vs Alabama game info

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET

Arkansas vs Alabama latest injuries

Arkansas vs Alabama weather

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