Both the Akron Zips and Eastern Michigan Eagles are coming off losses that showcase just how far away they are from competing in the MAC. The Zips lost 19-0 to Miami (OH), the top dog in the MAC East, and Toledo stomped the Eagles 49-23 to add to their MAC West lead.
Now, these two programs that sit second last in the MAC East and West, respectively, are on a collision course tonight in the perfect type of MACtion game.
These are two bad offenses and two slightly better defenses taking the grey field at Rynearson Stadium aka The Factory on a cold night in Ypsilanti. If you like scoring, this one isn’t for you and that’s why the college football odds have the total so low.
Find out where my best bets lie in our free college football picks for Akron vs. Eastern Michigan on Tuesday, November 14.
Akron vs Eastern Michigan best odds
Akron vs Eastern Michigan picks and predictions
It’s a down year for Chris Creighton’s program as they replace key contributors from the team that went 9-4 last season, the second-most wins in Eastern Michigan Eagles history, and try to reach bowl eligibility for the sixth time in his 10-year tenure.
Unfortunately for Creighton, arguably the most underrated coach in the Group of Five, the lack of consistency at quarterback has killed his team this season, which is why the Under 39 is in play.
Redshirt sophomore Austin Smith hasn’t been steady at all under center. He’s struggled with inaccuracy and turnovers allowing opposing defenses to focus on the Eagles' rushing attack.
As a result, Eastern Michigan is 125th in EPA per play on offense, 122nd in EPA per pass, and 104th in EPA per rush. Even last year’s 1,000-yard rusher Samson Evans has been ineffective with just 437 yards in 10 games and not one 90+-yard performance after having six last season. He and backup Jaylon Jackson haven’t even combined for a 100-yard game in the MAC and Evans hasn’t averaged more than 3.6 per carry in a conference game this season.
With an uninspiring passing game — averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt, seventh worst in college football — and a rushing attack that lacks any semblance of explosiveness, the Eagles are averaging 19 points per game this season. Their 260.1 total yards per game is second last in the country with their 154.8 passing yards per game ranking ninth worst and their 105.3 rushing yards being 17th worst.
They’re also going toe-to-toe with a surprisingly effective Akron Zips defense led by coordinator Tim Tibesar. His unit is 42nd in EPA per play and ninth in EPA per pass and has held teams to 331.8 total yards per game, 11th best in the Group of Five, and 182.5 passing yards per game, seventh least in the Group of Five.
Behind pass rusher CJ Nunnally, defensive back Kerry Martin Jr., and linebacker Bryan McCoy, this defense will be able to keep Smith, Evans, and Jackson in check. Luckily for the Eagles, Akron’s offense hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard either.
Despite head coach Joe Moorehead’s offensive background, the Zips are scoring 15.4 points per game, 132nd out of 133 FBS programs, and have only gone over 14 points once in six MAC games this season. At 284.5 total yards per game, Akron is the fifth worst in college football, and one of six programs in FBS to average less than 90 rushing yards per game.
They’ve also been one of the least efficient offenses sitting 129th in EPA per play and 131st in EPA per pass. Starting quarterback DJ Irons is out for the season with a knee injury and backup Jeff Undercuffler has been a turnover machine with eight interceptions to just four touchdown passes. He’s thrown four interceptions in his last three starts.
To make matters tougher for the Zips, two of their best playmakers, running back Lorenzo Lingard and receiver Alex Adams, are listed as questionable for the game against Eastern Michigan and this is an Eagles defense that’s been solid.
They’ve held teams to 25 per game, 59th in the country, and rank 56th in EPA per pass on defense thanks in part to the pass rush of Mikah Coleman and coverage of Daiquan White. Neither of these teams is built to score, especially when opposing defenses focus in on their run game. It’s going to be hard to get to 39 points.
My best bet: Under 39 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Akron vs Eastern Michigan same-game parlay
Under 39.5
Akron +4.5
While neither team has much going on offensively, Akron does have the most talented playmaker potentially taking the field in this game. If Lingard plays, he can do enough to lead the Zips to a cover.
Akron is 40th in EPA per rush on offense due to Lingard’s burst and open-field elusiveness. The former Top-50 recruit has found his home with the Zips after spending time at Miami and Florida and has 840 yards from scrimmage this season.
Behind Lingard, Akron should be able to do enough to take advantage of the Eagles' run defense — which sits 100th in EPA per rush — and keep this game close.
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Akron vs Eastern Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
Some books opened with Eastern Michigan as much as an 8-point favorite, but most have come down to -4 or -4.5.
The Eagles have gone 5-5 against the spread this season and are 2-2 ATS as favorites. In the MAC, they’re 4-2 ATS. The Zips haven’t been so lucky, going 3-6-1 ATS. They’ve gone 1-4-1 ATS in the MAC.
The total hasn’t budged with most books staying low where they opened at 39 or 39.5 with both of these programs’ offenses being as stagnant as they are this season.
Eastern Michigan is 4-6 this season when betting the Over, this is the lowest total of their season. While Akron is also 4-6 betting the Over, this would be their second-lowest total of the season after the Under 37.5 hit for them last week against the RedHawks.
Akron vs Eastern Michigan betting trend to know
Akron has only gone Over the total in five of its last 12 games (-2.70 units / -20% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Akron vs Eastern Michigan.
Akron vs Eastern Michigan game info
| Location: | Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 14, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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