Toronto is in a tailspin, and we're not here to catch a falling knife, so we're turning toward the prop market for our best Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are massive 39% underdogs at Novig, and for good reason. Can they right the ship? Let's dig in.
Tap into my NHL picks for Tuesday, Nov. 10, and let's have ourselves a night.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs prediction: Over 6.5
The Toronto Maple Leafs might be stuck in an offensive slump, but this is a prime opportunity to break out against a team allowing the 10th-most high-danger chances in hockey. And we might not even need much from Toronto tonight. The Avalanche could put up five goals themselves against Sergei Bobrovsky, who's sporting a -0.3 goals saved above expected this season.
The Avs are averaging four goals per game, and even amid their offensive slump, the Leafs still own a top-five power play (28%). These two teams combined for nine goals in their October meeting, and I'm expecting more of the same tonight. Let's see that lamp lit early and often.
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Avalanche vs Maple Leafs combo
Easton Cowan has gone pointless in November, but he's still skating on the top line and second power-play unit. Much of his struggles can be attributed to the team's overall offensive drought. Nazem Kadri brings plenty of offensive upside himself on a deadly power play, and if this turns into the back-and-forth shootout we're expecting, both players could cash this early.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs combo
- Avalanche vs. Leafs Over 6.5
- Easton Cowan 1+ point
- Nazem Kadri 1+ point
TOP PICK
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs player prop: Easton Cowan 1+ point
Cowan is only three games removed from putting up 11 points across 13 outings in October, and at this price, it's time to invest once more. Cowan is fifth on the team in expected goals, and he owns a 25% share of possible ice time. That gives us the volume we want to see to find the scoresheet in what should be a high-scoring affair against the Avalanche.
With the Avs giving up a ton of high-danger chances (23rd), let's rack up a point or two.
COVERS INTEL: Despite the offensive struggles in Toronto, the Jack Roslovic-Auston Matthews-Easton Cowan line own a 54.5 xGoals%, which is 30th in hockey for lines that have played over 70 minutes together.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Nathan MacKinnon
Nathan MacKinnon loves playing the Leafs, scoring 12 goals in 25 career games against Toronto. He found the back of the net twice in Colorado's 6-3 loss to the Leafs in October, and with Bobrovsky getting the nod tonight behind a leaky defense that's allowed 11 goals over the team's last three games, I'm expecting plenty more opportunities.
MacKinnon ranks inside the top 20 leaguewide in shots on goal per 60 minutes, giving us the volume we want from a player with his finishing ability.
- Top picks: 10-13, -1.48 units
- Combos: 6-16, +3.20 units
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Avalanche 62% | Maple Leafs 39%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (54%) | Under 6.5 (47%)
- Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (40%) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (61%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 4-0 in the Avalanche's last four road games. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Avalanche vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN4 |
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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