Wisconsin vs Michigan Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's Big Ten Tournament Game

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 14, 2026 , 08:41 AM ET • 4 min read

Wisconsin is running short on size and gas when it battles Michigan in the Big Ten tournament semis. Jason Logan says Wolverines' explosive forward Marquez Johnson Jr. goes hard in the paint on Saturday.

NCAAB

Match starts: 3 hrs
WIS
73 %
MICH
27 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Morez Johnson o15.5  Points (-112) Morez Johnson o15.5 Points (-112)
Read Analysis
Michigan Wolverines Morez Johnson Jr. NCAAM
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr.

The Michigan Wolverines have waited 63 days for another shot at the Wisconsin Badgers – one of just two teams to beat UM this season.

One big change – literally – from that last matchup was that Wisconsin had center Nolan Winter on the floor. The 7-footer is currently sidelined with an ankle injury.

Michigan forward Morez Johnson Jr. scored 18 points in the upset loss, and my Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 14 call for Johnson to feast inside sans Winter for plenty of points.

Wisconsin vs Michigan prediction

Wisconsin vs Michigan best bet: Marquez Johnson Jr. Over 15.5 points (-112)

Without Nolan Winter, the Wisconsin Badgers have rolled out the red carpet for inside scorers. 

They’ve allowed an average of 39 points in the paint, including 44 PITP versus Illinois Friday. That includes plenty of putbacks from offensive rebounds.

Morez Johnson Jr. leads the Michigan Wolverines in interior scoring (9.3 PITP) and snatches 2.5 offensive rebounds (2.7 second-chance points). But he’s much more than a “back to the basket” threat. 

Johnson’s size and athleticism have him finishing fast breaks and UM will push the pace against a winded Wisconsin team playing its third game in as many days.

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Wisconsin vs Michigan same-game parlay

The Wolverines have bigger fish to fry but scoring a dash of revenge against Wisconsin is a cherry on top. Michigan is just two big and fast and will wear down a weary Badgers team missing their big man.

Johnson dropped 18 on UW in that upset loss and had scored 16 or more in three straight games before going just 5-for-11 for 11 points in the win over Ohio State. He’s knocked off the rust of an extended break and has a notable interior edge Saturday.

Andrew Rohde is part of a rebounding by committee approach for the Badgers since losing Winter. His offense has been horrible, but he’s grabbed three or more boards in three of the last four games.

Wisconsin vs Michigan SGP

  • Michigan moneyline
  • Marquez Johnson Jr. Over 15.5 points
  • Andrew Rohde Over 2.5 rebounds

Our beyond the arc SGP: The B1G payback

In the immortal words of James Brown, “My patience ends, I want revenge!”

Not that Michigan needed any extra motivation to win, but the Wolverines can exorcise some demons by demolishing the Badgers. They will do so with their advantage inside.

Wisconsin vs Michigan SGP

  • Michigan -12
  • Morez Johnson Jr. Over 15.5 points
  • Aday Mara Over 12.5 points
  • Morez Johnson Jr. Over 8.5 rebounds

Wisconsin vs Michigan odds

  • Spread: Wisconsin +12 | Michigan -12
  • Moneyline: Wisconsin +550 | Michigan -800
  • Over/Under: Over 161 | Under 161

Wisconsin vs Michigan betting trend to know

Michigan has gone Under the total in 14 of its last 20 games (+7.40 Units/34% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan.

How to watch Wisconsin vs Michigan

Location United Center, Chicago, IL
Date Saturday, March 14, 2026
Tip-off 1:00 p.m. ET
TV CBS

Wisconsin vs Michigan key injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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