Wisconsin vs Iowa Picks: Hawkeyes Aim to Lock Up No. 3 Spot

Mar 7, 2021 |
Wisconsin vs Iowa Picks: Hawkeyes Aim to Lock Up No. 3 Spot
Luka Garza and the Iowa Hawkeyes close out the regular season against Wisconsin, who they beat by 15 points two weeks ago, where a win would lock up the third spot in the Big Ten tournament.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Luka Garza and the Iowa Hawkeyes close out the regular season against Wisconsin, who they beat by 15 points two weeks ago, where a win would lock up the third spot in the Big Ten tournament.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Iowa Hawkeyes still have plenty to play for in their final Big Ten regular-season showdown, hosting the Wisconsin Badgers Sunday afternoon.

Iowa, which can lock up the No. 3 see in the upcoming Big Ten tournament, is a 7-point home college basketball betting favorite on Senior Day, hoping to send star forward Luka Garza out in style for his final game inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

These are our NCAA betting free picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Iowa on March 7, with tip-off set for 12:30 p.m. ET.

Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes betting preview

Injuries

Wisconsin: None to report.
Iowa: Jack Nunge F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Iowa is 21-6-2 ATS in its last 29 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Iowa.

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NCAAB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Iowa hit the FanDuel odds board as a 5.5-point favorite Saturday afternoon, stretched to -6 Saturday evening and reached -7 by midmorning today. As of 11:30 a.m. ET, the Hawkeyes remain -7 and are attracting 86 percent of bets/87 percent of money on the point spread. The total is down a point to 143, with 59 percent of tickets and money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Wisconsin brings a two-game slide into Carver-Hawkeye Area and has just one victory in the past five games, boasting a 1-4 ATS mark in that span. The Badgers have had the misfortune of facing the biggest and baddest programs in the Big Ten during this stretch, including a 77-62 loss to Iowa at home as 1.5-point favorites.

The Badgers defense has allowed almost 73 points per game over those last four losses and Wisconsin’s plodding offensive attack just can’t make up for those lapses, ranked among the bottom of the country in tempo and managing only 65.4 points in rebuttal in this five-game stretch.

Iowa proved just how potent its offense can be by hanging 102 points on Nebraska last Thursday. The Hawkeyes rebounded from a bad loss to Michigan with two of its strongest showings of the season: handling Ohio State by 16 points on the road and blasting the Huskers by 38 points. Iowa posted first-half totals of 42 and 48 points in those games, respectively, and own the country’s third-best scoring attack in the opening 20 minutes (41.8 points per first half). Wisconsin, on the other hand, is slow out of the blocks (32.9 first-half points) and has failed to post 30-plus points in the opening half in three of its last four outings.

Momentum, quick starts, and locking in the No. 3 spot in the conference tournament (and a double-bye) are reasons enough to like Iowa in this one. But then you throw in Senior Day for Garza and starting guard Jordan Bohannon, and you have to feel comfy laying the seven points with the Hawkeyes in the finale.

PREDICTION: Iowa -7 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

Thursday’s offensive eruption has pumped this total up a bit, but for all of Iowa’s scoring supremacy, you can’t knock what the Hawkeyes can do on defense. The 79-57 loss to the Wolverines on February 25 was the only time in Iowa’s past eight games that its opponent was able to crack the 70-point plateau.

The Hawkeyes boast a 1-7 Over/Under count in that span, including their 77-62 victory at Wisconsin, staying Under the 145-point number. Iowa was very efficient in that win, firing at 51 percent from the field, including 12 for 19 from beyond the arc. However, it locked the Badgers down to a mere 30 percent effort from the floor.

Wisconsin, as mentioned, plays a very methodical pace on offense and averages only 65.4 points per road game—a more than seven-point drop compared to production in the Kohl Center. The Badgers have gone Over in their two most recent Big Ten efforts but own a 4-9-1 O/U count in their last 15 contests, with the Under cashing in five of their last eight road games.

PREDICTION: Under 144 (-110)

Wisconsin vs Iowa betting card

  • Iowa -7 (-110)
  • Under 144 (-110)
NCAA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA Wisconsin vs. Iowa picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on college basketball?

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