We've got a terrific slate of college basketball betting options this Sunday, headlined by a Big 12 battle between the No. 18-ranked Texas Tech Raiders and the No. 3 Baylor Bears.
While the Bears are locked in as the second seed in the upcoming conference tournament, they will still be looking to make a statement win after some shaky performances since returning from a three-week break due to postponements.
Here are our best free Texas Tech vs. Baylor picks and predictions for Sunday, March 7, with tipoff at 4 p.m. ET.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears betting preview
Injuries
Texas Tech: Jamarius Burton G (Questionable), Joel Ntambwe F (Out).
Baylor: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in Baylor's last nine games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Baylor.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBaylor opened as an 8-point favorite Saturday afternoon at PointsBet USA, spent about three hours at -7.5, then moved back to -8 Saturday night, and the line remains -8 at 1 p.m. ET today. "Two-way action on the spread, with 65 percent of bets on Baylor, while 62 percent of handle is on Texas Tech," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total dropped to 137.5 from a 140 opener, despite heavy play on the Over, which is getting 82 percent of bets/90 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Baylor has looked like one of the best teams in the country all season, going 20-1 SU and 14-7 ATS. However, not playing for 21 days due to COVID regulations appears to have disrupted the Bears' rhythm. They came back from that break looking very shaky against Big 12 bottom feeder Iowa State, barely winning at home on February 23. They followed up on that by getting crushed by 13 points versus Kansas before scraping by in overtime against West Virginia.
That said, the Bears are fresh off an 81-70 win against No. 17 Oklahoma State where they shot 51 percent from the floor and 41 percent from long range. If they have managed to shake off the rust they could return to their dominant earlier season form, which saw them beat the Red Raiders 68-60 in Lubbock in mid-January.
Texas Tech is on a three-game winning streak and is coming off a dominant win against Iowa State. Prior to that span, however, the Red Raiders had lost three in a row and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road.
Despite Baylor's recent up-and-down play, the Bears still have an average scoring margin of plus-20 points per game, with that number increasing to plus-25.3 ppg at home.
Scott Drew's squad once again is defending at a high level, holding opponents to 65.2 ppg on 43 percent shooting, but it's been on offense where Baylor has really excelled. The Bears rank third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and will be facing a Red Raiders team that hasn't defended anywhere near as well on the road as they have at home. Back the Bears to close the season with a statement win.
PREDICTION: Baylor -8 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Baylor has really looked special on the offensive end of the floor this season. Led by guard Jared Butler (17.1 points and 5 assists per game) they are third in the nation with 85.2 ppg while shooting a sizzling 49.6 percent from the field.
That said, Baylor's defense appears to have taken a step back since returning from its COVID-forced break. The Bears are surrendering 75.5 ppg on 50 percent shooting over their last four games. They have also been a terrific Over bet recently, going 8-1 O/U in their last nine games overall and going 5-0 to the Over in their previous five contests in Waco.
While the Red Raiders are known for their stingy defense and slow tempo, they have been efficient on offense, ranking 35th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. With Texas Tech going above the total in five of its last seven away games, go against the line movement and take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 138 (-110)
Texas Tech vs Baylor betting card
- Baylor -8 (-110)
- Over 138 (-110)
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