It's the final day of the regular season for college basketball betting and while conference tournaments and March Madness are still ahead of us, there's no reason to ignore the terrific matchups scheduled this afternoon.
The Michigan Wolverines will look to close their season with another big win as they face the Michigan State Spartans just three days after clobbering them in Ann Arbor.
Can they cover the spread against their intrastate rivals again today? We let you know with our best free Michigan vs. Michigan State picks and predictions for Sunday, March 7, with tipoff at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans betting preview
Injuries
Michigan: None.
Michigan State: Foster Loyer G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Wolverines are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as road favorites. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Michigan State.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged Michigan a 9-point road favorite at the outset Saturday afternoon, dipped to -7.5 a few times, edged up to -8.5, then settled at -8 late this morning. "Eighty-two percent of bets and 84 percent of handle on Michigan," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said of action at 1:30 p.m. ET. The total opened at 136.5 and briefly went to 136 Saturday night, but it's now up to 137.5. "Good two-way on the total, with 65 percent of bets on the Over and 53 percent of handle on the Under."
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
We backed the Spartans as 12-point road underdogs on Thursday and boy were we ever wrong. Tom Izzo's squad was wrecked by 19 points and looked dreadful on offense, shooting just 36 percent from the field and going 0 for 9 from long range.
We thought the Spartans would be heavily motivated by the fact that they sit on the bubble and need some strong performances to earn an at-large bid. Motivation, however, wasn't enough to overcome their shortcomings in other areas. This year's version of MSU simply isn't very good. The Spartans have gone just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games and rank outside the Top 200 in both scoring (69.5 points per game) and scoring defense (allowing 70.9 ppg).
Michigan, on the other hand, has been a juggernaut on both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom), while ranking fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Wolverines are 19-2 SU and 16-5 ATS and they travel very well, going 4-0 ATS in their last four away games and shooting 47.3 percent from the floor on the road this season. Look for Juwan Howard's squad to cruise to another easy victory and back them on the spread.
PREDICTION: Michigan -8 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
These teams combined for just 119 points on Thursday, going well Under the total of 139.5. While the O/U for today has ticked down to 137, we still like the Under to hit.
The Wolverines are very strong on the offensive end of the floor thanks to Hunter Dickinson, Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner, who all average at least 13 ppg. That said, they play at a slow pace and have been a terrific Under bet, going below the total in 10 of their previous 12 games.
Michigan plays terrific team defense, limiting foes to a field goal percentage of just 38.7 percent. Meanwhile, Tom Izzo's team has made strides on the defensive end of the floor in recent weeks, holding Ohio State to 67 points and limiting Illinois' high-scoring offense to 40 percent shooting from the floor.
The Spartans have played solid defense at home all season, holding foes to 67.8 ppg on 40 percent shooting. They have also gone 7-1 to the Under in their last eight games at the Breslin Center. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 137.5 (-110)
Michigan vs Michigan State betting card
- Michigan -8 (-110)
- Under 137.5 (-110)
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