The No. 3 Virginia Tech Hokies have to blow the dust off their Nikes when they play the No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament in Greensboro Thursday.
Due to game cancellations, the Hokies haven’t taken the court since a win over Wake Forest on February 27. That 12-day hiatus comes on the heels of VT playing just four games in February. North Carolina, on the other hand, looks in fine form coming off a 101-59 blowout over Notre Dame on Wednesday.
Here are our college basketball betting free picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech on March 11.
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBetMGM Nevada opened North Carolina -3, got to -4 today and is now -3.5 shortly before tipoff. "It's all North Carolina. Tickets are 5/1 and money 5/1 on North Carolina," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said of point-spread action. The total is up a point to 141. "All the money is on the Over. Just a few dollars on the Under. They're betting UNC and Over," Shelton said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNorth Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Tech Hokies betting preview
Injuries
North Carolina: Garrison Brooks F (Questionable), Puff Johnson G (Questionable).
Virginia Tech: Jalen Cone G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Hokies head coach Mike Young won’t lie: he’s concerned about his team’s lack of action heading into the ACC Tournament. Virginia Tech was hit hard by COVID-19 contract tracing protocols in the backend of the schedule and will be playing just its second game in the past 32 days when VT tangles with UNC in Greensboro.
That disjointed schedule makes it very difficult to get a strong grasp on the Hokies, who have split wins and losses in those previous four outings but went 1-3 ATS during those final games. Virginia Tech has been able to continue practicing in this lull, but game shape and practice shape are two different things.
The Hokies lean on their defense to edge opponents, ranking 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, and force foes to burn through an average of 18.1 seconds per possession. Virginia Tech also does good work on the boards, boasting a rebound rate of 52.9 percent – 52nd in the country – and allowing only 6.1 offensive rebounds a contest.
Unfortunately, UNC may be Virginia Tech’s kryptonite. The Tar Heels will put the Hokies conditioning to the test with an up-and-down tempo that sits as the 41st fastest in the country and a deep roster of young talented players that saw five guys put up at least 14 points versus the Fighting Irish (without starting forward Garrison Brooks).
What’s more, the Tar Heels are the best rebounding team in the land, with a rebound rate of 54.7 percent, including a 40.2 percent offensive rebound rate that’s produced an average of 13.8 offensive boards per outing. North Carolina killed Notre Dame on the glass with 52 total rebounds—24 of which came on the offensive end.
PREDICTION: North Carolina -4 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Due to those COVID-19 cancellations, UNC and Virginia Tech failed to meet in the ACC regular season. This 139.5-point total would indicate that oddsmakers do project the Hokies to have some success slowing down the pace of the game but is also an expectation that VT’s offense will be a little rusty out of the gate.
North Carolina is no slouch defensively either. While Roy Williams' crew put forth some inconsistent efforts down the home stretch of the schedule, most of those issues were on offense. The Heels are 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and use their size and athleticism to protect the paint, boasting the fourth-best efficient height metric (+2.6) and averaging eight blocks per game over their last three—with 12 swats coming in a victory over the Irish Wednesday.
The Heels and Hokies may not have matched up during this strange season, but have produced solid results for the Under in past meetings, going 2-7 Over/Under in their last nine head-to-head games.
PREDICTION: Under 139.5 (-110)
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech betting card
- North Carolina -4 (-110)
- Under 139.5 (-110)
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