One of the biggest matchups to kick off the college basketball season tips off this evening in Tampa, with Florida entering as a 5.5-point favorite against Miami.
My Miami vs. Florida prediction has the Gators looking to kickstart their national championship aspirations early.
Visit our college basketball picks for more matchup analysis.
TOP PICK
Who will win Miami vs. Florida: Florida -5.5
The Miami Hurricanes are coming off a 19-win turnaround from their putrid 2024-25 season, with high hopes for Year 2 of the Jai Lucas experience. This team looks to take another step forward in bringing the program back to relevancy.
However, they have to start the season against a team with national title aspirations once again.
The Florida Gators return 11 players from a year ago. Yes, ELEVEN. That's a number you don't hear too often in an era where guys are transferring every year.
The culture and system Todd Golden has built over his four seasons at the university are something these kids believe in, and they want to help turn Florida into a powerhouse again.
It's hard to ignore the amount of familiarity surrounding this Gators program, and it nearly backs you against the wall when it comes to backing them.
Play the Gators up to -8.5.
COVERS INTEL: Florida returns four starters from a year ago, with Thomas Haugh expected to be the go-to guy this season. After averaging 17.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game last season, Haugh enters 2026-27 regarded as one of the top three players in the nation.
Miami vs. Florida Over/Under pick: Over 158.5
Florida will make this a track meet, but the issue with backing Florida Overs is that the Gators play elite-level defense, even for a team running at lightning speed.
It is going to be a sweat if the Hurricanes are unable to keep up and score efficiently. However, the Gators have all the talent to put up 95 to 100 points on any given night.
I lean heavily toward points being scored in this matchup.
Miami vs. Florida combo
Back everyone to score while Florida pulls away in this one. You can find some great value at Kalshi, with 3.36x odds on those two picks combined.
Miami vs. Florida combo
- Florida -5.5
- Over 158.5
- 2025-26 picks: 65-67-19, +1.8 units
Miami vs. Florida odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Miami +5.5 | Florida -5.5
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5
- Moneyline: Miami 32% | Florida 68%
For the full slate of college basketball matchups, check out our college basketball odds board!
Miami vs. Florida trend
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch Miami vs. Florida
| Location | Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Fla. |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 2, 2026 |
| Tip off | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Miami vs. Florida latest injuries
Check out our college basketball injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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