A challenging stylistic mismatch awaits Wright State when they meet Virginia in the NCAA Tournament.
Overly rim-reliant teams typically find themselves in a tricky predicament when facing UVA, and this matchup will be no different.
My Wright State vs. Virginia predictions and March Madness picks break down why the Raiders will struggle to score on Friday, March 20.
Wright State vs Virginia prediction
Who will win Wright State vs Virginia?
Virginia: The Cavaliers' defense ranks in the 97th percentile or better on four of Wright State's five highest-volume actions. The Raiders have no secondary creation path once their primary stuff gets clamped. On the other side, the physicality of UVA figures to bother a Wright State team that’s not used to it.
Wright State vs Virginia best bet: Wright State team total Under 63.5 (-120)
The Wright State Raiders offense is so rim-driven, and you’re looking at a team in the Virginia Cavaliers that's one of the elite in the country at defending the rim this season.
Just ask Duke’s Cam Boozer, who went 3-for-17 against them in the ACC Championship game.
Wright State’s two highest-volume halfcourt actions involve the paint. The Raiders rank in the 90th percentile of frequency rate in post-ups and the 80th percentile in big cut/rolls. Virginia's defense has killed these actions all season, ranking in the 97th percentile against both actions.
COVERS INTEL: Wright State shoots 33.6% from three on the season, but Virginia holds opponents to 30.9% from deep (63rd nationally) while forcing 37.5% of opponent shots to be threes.
Wright State vs Virginia same-game parlay
Thijs De Ridder has only gone Over this number in two of his last five games. However, Wright State presents a unique matchup because they are at a size disadvantage, giving De Ridder a better opportunity to excel.
I also like Malik Thomas to go Over his 3-point number, since Wright State's poor attack-and-kick defense makes Thomas the main threat in that area.
Wright State vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia moneyline 1H
- Malik Thomas Over 1.5 threes
- Thijs De Ridder Over 6.5 rebounds
Our Big Dance SGP: Cavs crush Raiders
Virginia covers this number because of its defense. Wright State will go through long scoring droughts and press, and things will get out of hand.
TJ Burch is the primary facilitator for the Raiders, but almost all of his assists result from sets finishing at the rim. Likewise, Imariagbe is the main finisher on those rim sets.
Wright State vs Virginia SGP
- Malik Thomas Over 1.5 threes
- Virginia -18
- TJ Burch Under 2.5 assists
- Michael Imariagbe Under 9.5 points
Wright State vs Virginia odds
- Spread: Wright State +18 | Virginia -18
- Moneyline: Wright State +1400 | Virginia -4000
- Over/Under: Over 145 | Under 145
Wright State vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 25 games (+15.25 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wright State vs. Virginia.
How to watch Wright State vs Virginia
| Location | Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Friday, March 20, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 1:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Wright State vs Virginia key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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