Here comes the puzzle that demands both misery and sleep deprivation. But it is also a puzzle you can plausibly solve, unlike picking a perfect bracket.
March Madness survivor pools are the truest springtime chance at a massive payout from a modest investment. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, it is very similar to the better-known NFL survivor pools, but the tournament format means your pool of available teams shrinks by half with each round.
Pick a team to win each day of the NCAA Tournament. Once you pick a team, you cannot pick it again, so you'd better hold your title pick in your back pocket for three weeks.
In the first round, you want to find teams flawed enough that they do not have plausible Final Four hopes yet strong enough you can trust them to win their opening games. This is March; how many flawed teams can you genuinely trust?
Hence being a puzzle that will cost you sleep and joy while in the pursuit of a complete picture.
Best first-round March Madness survivor picks
Nebraska
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Thursday: Nebraska
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 13-point favorites against the Troy Trojans on Thursday, March 19. Advanced metrics argue for a larger spread, with KenPom pondering 15 points.
It becomes difficult to find enough variance when a double-digit underdog plays at a plodding pace (No. 309 in the country) and does not make even a third of its 3-point attempts. You may have noticed, few folks are considering Troy as a trendy underdog pick.
The real key here is Nebraska is unlikely to make a run into the second weekend. The Cornhuskers are +110 at bet365 to reach the Sweet Sixteen, an underdog to No. 4 seed Vanderbilt in the same pod (-115 to reach the Sweet Sixteen).
Taking Nebraska as your initial survivor pick makes sense, as the Cornhuskers should win handily while struggling to see a path forward.
Also considered: Vanderbilt as an 11.5-point favorite vs. McNeese State and with -115 odds of reaching the Sweet Sixteen and +400 odds of reaching the Elite Eight; Arkansas as a 15-point favorite vs. Hawai’i and with -140 odds of reaching the Sweet Sixteen but +450 odds of reaching the Elite Eight.
Friday: Kansas
The Kansas Jayhawks are 14.5-point favorites against the 13-seed Cal Baptist Lancers. Some may point out how dynamic Cal Baptist guard Dominique Daniels can be, particularly since he hoists shots on 34.0% of the possessions when he is on the court.
But the blunt reality is the Lancers lost by 31 points against BYU in early December, the most comparable opponent to the Jayhawks on their schedule.
For that matter, Kansas has its own dynamic guard, freshman Darryn Peterson, actually shooting even more often than Daniels at 34.7%.
Just as BYU star AJ Dybantsa won the showcase matchup with Daniels — the latter scoring only 11 points on 4 of 13 shooting — expect Peterson to exert his will on both ends of the court.
With that confidence, recognize the Jayhawks are +105 at bet365 to advance out of the first weekend, undone by the imposing threat of St. John’s. Again, taking Kansas should open a path to the weekend without closing off a path further forward.
Also considered: Virginia as an 18.5-point favorite vs. Wright State and with -130 odds of reaching the Sweet Sixteen but +300 odds of reaching the Elite Eight.
