The Chicago Cubs are 41-28 against sub .500 teams this season, and they're -175 favorites to tack on another win this afternoon.
With Michael McGreevy coming back to earth, I'm all over the home team in my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Cardinals vs Cubs today: Chicago Cubs (-175)
Michael McGreevy ranks in the third percentile in xBA and his 5.68 xERA is more than two runs higher than his actual ERA of 3.64. He’s a guy I want to attack.
The Chicago Cubs are a prime candidate to exploit McGreevy. They own the league’s second ranked offense in runs per game, and they’re in good form. They sit sixth in wOBA vs. righties over the past month.
Matthew Boyd owns strong numbers (2.37 ERA, 0.67 HR/9) excluding Top-10 offenses in OPS vs. lefties, and the St. Louis Cardinals rank 22nd.
Bet to -190.
COVERS INTEL: McGreevy has posted a xERA of 4.65 or worse in five consecutive starts, setting up for Chicago to have a productive day at the plate.
Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 9.0 (-120)
McGreevy is finally starting to get the results he deserves. He is sporting a 6.29 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed an average well over .300, aligning with his putrid numbers in xBA.
His ERA sits at nearly 5.0 when isolating matchups against Top-10 teams in OPS and xwOBA against right-handed pitching, and the Cubs hammered him for seven runs the last time he started against them.
Boyd has allowed 1.67 HR/9 at home this season, and favorable conditions at Wrigley could cause problems today.
Take the Over to -130.
Cardinals vs Cubs home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+335)
McGreevy ranks in the ninth percentile in xSLG vs. left-handed bats. He gives up a ton of quality contact, which sets up well for Pete Crow-Armstrong.
The NL MVP candidate has feasted on righties all season long, and owns a 20% barrel rate against McGreevy’s pitch mix over his last 25 batted balls.
The conditions at Wrigley are expected to provide an 18% boost to home runs. That’ll help PCA get more carry when he’s already hitting the ball hard, and far, on a consistent basis.
I’d bet PCA down to +305.
- ML/RL bets: 78-71, -8.65 units
- Over/Under bets: 79-65-6, +5.44 units
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
With temperatures in the mid 70s and winds blowing out, the bats will see a boost in this game.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +150 | Cubs -175
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-120) | Under 9.0 (+100)
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
Chicago has hit the moneyline in 31 of the last 45 games (+14.70 units, 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.
How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, Marquee |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Michael McGreevy (4-9, 3.64 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (8-1, 3.50 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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