The Boston Red Sox (-130) have stumbled over the last week but are rightfully favored against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own a poor 29-39 record against teams over .500.
My Red Sox vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks see Boston rebounding tonight on the back of quality start from Sonny Gray.
Who will win Red Sox vs Pirates today: Boston Red Sox (-130)
Sonny Gray ranks in the 81st percentile in Pitcher Run Value, and has a nice matchup to build on that against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Their projected lineup has seven hitters with xwOBAs of .330 or lower – and six with ISOs below .125 – against right-handed pitching the last 20 games.
Jared Jones has allowed a .321 average and 14 runs over his past three starts, and will have a tough time slowing down the Boston Red Sox.
I’d back the Red Sox on the moneyline up to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Gray ranks second in hard hit percentage allowed on the road among today's 20 qualified starters, setting him up to limit Pittsburgh's power.
Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-120)
Gray is a unique arm in that he throws three pitches more frequently than the fastball. That should set him up for success against the Pirates, who own a .286 average and 11.9% barrel rate against fastballs.
They haven’t enjoyed nearly as much success against Gray’s primaries. They've posted a 3.9% barrel rate vs. the sinker, and have hit .235 or worse against sliders and cutters. Not good.
Boston does not hit for much power against the fastball, and Jones’ 95th percentile average fastball velocity will help him neutralize it.
Bet to -130.
Red Sox vs Pirates home run prediction: Wilder Abreu (+400)
Wilyer Abreu was built in a lab to hit Jones.
Jones throws a ton of fastballs and sliders, and Abreu owns ISOs of .227 and .484 against those pitches when facing righties.
Abreu is also in fantastic form, ranking in the 99th percentile in ISO vs. right-handed pitching the past 20 games.
Abreu has left the yard in 28.6% of away games against pitchers in the 50th percentile or worse in HR/9 vs. LHH. I’d play this to +360.
- ML/RL bets: 78-71, -8.65 units
- Over/Under bets: 79-65-6, +5.44 units
Red Sox vs Pirates weather
The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80 with slight winds blowing inwards. Neutral impact.
Red Sox vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Boston -130 | Pittsburgh +110
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+135) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)
Red Sox vs Pirates trend
Boston has hit the moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.25 units, 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Pirates.
How to watch Red Sox vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (14-3, 2.79 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Jared Jones (2-4, 5.03 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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