We've reached the end of the college basketball season, with March Madness odds culminating tonight in Houston at the National Championship Game.
However, we're looking at one player who could have a breakout performance or — at least — a significant impact on the game's outcome. That player? Jordan Hawkins.
While Hawkins has been the emotional (and physical presence) that Adama Sanogo has been, he's been the separator for the Huskies. When he's hitting from deep, UConn feels impossible to beat.
Could that happen tonight? Check out our college basketball picks below to find out.
Jordan Hawkins National Championship prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Hawkins Under 2.5 made threes (-110 at DraftKings)
This is not for the weak-hearted, but it's the right side. The most mystifying thing about the Florida Atlantic game is how often San Diego State underscreened. Doing it directly led to a hot shooting performance from the Owls, forcing the Aztecs into a frantic, late comeback.
SDSU underscreened some in the tournament but not nearly to that degree against previous tournament opponents. Its heavy ball pressure against Alabama and Creighton led to both teams going well below their season average from three, hitting five combined threes on over 40 attempts. I suspect you'll have more of those defensive coverages tonight.
It's worth noting that the Aztecs are 8-0 against teams with a 3-point rate of 44% or higher (UConn sits at 42%) and this isn't by mistake. Dutcher's defensive pressure in the backcourt has done two things in this tournament: negate the size difference most teams have inside (although the Aztecs still manage to have exceptional rim presence) and run teams off the 3-point line.
They're exceptionally good at taking one thing away. They'll concede Sanogo scoring inside if the tradeoff is limited production from beyond the arc. That starts exclusively with slowing down Jordan Hawkins. The thing that can kill this is threes that come in transition, but it's the risk you take.
Hawkins Under 1.5 assists + Under 3.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
I expect Hawkins' impact to come from drives to the basket off hard closeouts or hedges and jump shots off screens but not necessarily from beyond the arc. Because of this, I expect him to spend more time off the ball. This has been the pattern throughout the tournament and I don't expect that to change tonight.
UConn has the ball handlers they desire against San Diego's intense ball pressure. Because of that, Hawkins won't have many opportunities to assist. You can pair this with the Over on Andre Jackson Jr. assist total (+300 at bet365) as he is a dynamic playmaker and is the apparent benefactor here; however, this is the less risk-averse play.
Hawkins has gone Over this assist number just once in the tournament. That came against Arkansas and I couldn't imagine a more different game than the one you'll see tonight.
The rebound play reflects what San Diego State has done on the glass. They offer up few long rebounds and Hawkins will generally be away from the basket. It's a number he's also only exceeded once during the tournament.
