Utah State vs Missouri Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Aggies Get Aggro From Long Range

Logic suggests the Utah State Aggies should be favored by much more than a point against the Missouri Tigers in Thursday’s opening round of March Madness picks. Yet, March Madness odds suggest drama will come in Sacramento.

Here are our free college basketball picks for Utah State vs. Missouri on March 16, with tip set for 1:40 ET.

Utah State vs Missouri best odds

Utah State vs Missouri picks and predictions

The smartest minds in sports gambling call this a “stinky” or a “smelly” line. Every analytic ranking out there considers Utah State measurably better than Missouri. Maybe the inverted seeding can be explained by committee bias toward the bigger conference, but a 1-point spread when something like -3 or -4 would have been expected? That’s inexplicable.

The Aggies’ offense is comparable to the Tigers’. Their defense is far and away better. Focus on just the last six weeks, specifically since Jan. 28, and Utah State is one of the top-15 teams in the country, per the Torvik ratings. In that same stretch? Missouri is the No. 66 team in the country with the No. 178 defense.

Yet, the Aggies are only one-point favorites. Some of that can be traced to particular large betting groups seeing value in the Tigers. This line opened with Utah State favored by two points late Sunday night and Monday morning movement drove it down to -1.0 or -1.5.

What do they know that we don’t? Because this line already seemed too tight. It stinks. It smells.

And that uncertainty scares off this handicapper. But, an avenue can still exist to show faith in Utah State while not worrying about that spread.

Missouri’s defense forces opponents to chuck from deep. 44.1% of opposing field goal attempts came from beyond the arc. That was 45.0% in 20 SEC games, so the percentage in 13 non-conference games was comparable, as well. It was not simply a result of SEC offenses being atrocious from deep. (No, really, they were. Missouri’s 3-point percentage offense was best in the conference at 35.0%, which across the season would rank No. 123 in the country.) It was the Tigers’ approach.

The Aggies will welcome it. They’ve shot 38.5% from deep this season, No. 11 in the country, and take 42.1% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, ranking No. 61. In 15 of 34 games, they hit more than 40% of their 3-point attempts.

Betting the Utah State team total Over will not require the Aggies again hit 40% of their threes, just that they take a bunch of them. Missouri will encourage that.

My best bet: Utah State team total Over 78.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Utah State vs Missouri spread analysis

The confoundingly tight spread may be a reflection of how Missouri played in games with tight spreads all season. The Tigers went 5-0 against the spread in their last five games with pregame spreads within a bucket, and 6-1 on the season.

Utah State went 2-4 in similar such spots, though it went 21-12 ATS overall this year.

Missouri’s rotation consists of six seniors and a junior, the type of veteran group that will not wilt in a close game no matter the stakes. Then again, that group did somewhat wilt toward the end of the season, going 4-7-1 ATS since Feb. 11.

The Aggies ended the season on a completely different kind of streak; the impressive run since the end of January vaulting Utah State up any and all analytics rankings. The Aggies covered seven straight games before running into San Diego State in the Mountain West championship game — and 10 of their last 13 games. In fact, three of Utah State’s last four ATS losses came against San Diego State.

Utah State vs Missouri Over/Under analysis

Both these teams trend toward the Over, though not decidedly so. The Aggies hit the Over in 19 of 34 games this year while the Tigers did so in 18 of 33. This total of 154.5 or 155.5, depending on your book, is the highest Utah State has seen since November against anybody but New Mexico. (Explanation: New Mexico is one of the fastest-paced teams in the country and itself has a relatively lackluster defense.) Similarly, Missouri hasn’t faced a total as high as 155.5 since November except twice against Alabama. (Explanation: Alabama is really good.)

Reaching this lofty number may come down to how many threes Utah State takes, but rest assured, that should be plenty.

Utah State vs Missouri betting trend to know

Utah State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games and 5-1 ATS in its last six games against opponents with winning percentages above .600, such as Missouri. Find more college basketball betting trends for Charleston vs. San Diego State.

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