UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Offensive Mirror Match Goes Over

The phrase “trendy underdog” may be overused, but the UC Santa Barbara Guachos have emerged as one of those March Madness picks, partly due to a lack of overwhelming faith in the Baylor Bears. Santa Barbara is on a seven-game winning streak while the Bears have stumbled in their last two, but are those trends enough evidence to favor the March Madness odds on a 14-seed?

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor on March 17, with tip set for 1:30 ET.

UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor best odds

UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor picks and predictions

Much of March’s conversation focuses on what team is hot, and UC Santa Barbara certainly is. Since a three-game losing streak in mid-February — three games in which UCSB was favored — the Guachos have rattled off seven straight wins, including three win-or-go home occasions in the Big West conference tournament.

That losing streak was somewhat inexplicable. UCSB had just lost senior shooting guard Ajare Sannis, but no amount of leadership should be so indispensable that Santa Barbara could not navigate losing a player scoring 6.5 points in 18 minutes per game and shooting less than 30% from 3. The Guachos just hit a Valentine’s Day lull, it would seem.

Since then, their offense has taken off. From Feb. 22 to now, Santa Barbara’s offense has been the No. 28 in the country, per the Torvik ratings. Ken Pomeroy’s rankings agree with that sentiment, looking at UCSB’s offense as the No. 72 in the country currently whereas on Feb. 22, it was ranked No. 119.

It’s an offense based on 2-point shots, attempting threes on only 29.1%  of its field-goal attempts. Of 363 D-1 teams, Santa Barbara ranks No. 340 in that 3-point rate. It may be a low-risk, low-reward approach, but it’s also one that obviously reduces variance. An offense that protects the ball, gets to the free throw line with frequency, and scores most of its points on 2-point buckets is an offense that should produce consistently.

Even if it is facing Baylor. Perhaps, especially if it is facing Baylor. 

The Bears have the No. 2 offense in the country, per both Pomeroy and Torvik. It’s not so much a balanced approach as it is a relentless one. Baylor gets to the free throw line more often than the vast majority of teams, it moves the ball around with efficiency, and above all else, it feasts on offensive rebounds.

Again, those are things that should persist no matter the opponent.

This total sits at 143.5 at most books, That trends a bit closer to the Bears’ usual pregame totals than to the Guachos’, but it’s enough between them that it should not scare off these Over thoughts. Both teams play slowly, but both offenses play consistently, to such a degree the opposing defense may hardly matter on Friday.

Scoring this efficiently — UCSB ranks No. 29 in the country in effective field goal percentage while Baylor comes in at No. 52 — should push this game Over its modest total without much stress.

My best bet: Over 143.0 (-110 at DraftKings)

UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor spread analysis

It’s a life lesson as well as a gambling adage: No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. Applying that beyond one game starts to take away from its moral, but it is also the basic premise behind the thought of “regression to the mean.”

If either UC Santa Barbara or Baylor regresses to its respective mean, any talk of the Guachos springing an upset will be misguided. While UCSB’s offense drove its seven-game winning streak and should continue to click, the Guachos went 6-0-1 against the spread in that stretch. Before that, they were 15-10 ATS this season. Santa Barbara has unquestionably improved, but expecting it to continue to so readily exceed expectations may be a reach.

Baylor, meanwhile, is on a two-game losing streak, with both losses coming against Iowa State. The Cyclones thrive on defense, far and away the best in the Big 12, something the Bears should not worry about on Friday. But even beyond that, Baylor is 2-4 in its last six games, both straight-up and against the spread.

Then again, all four of those losses came against teams seeded six or higher in the NCAA tournament and two came on the road.

Baylor has not enjoyed a game against a lesser opponent like this — no offense Guachos, just stating facts here — since early February, beating and covering against both Oklahoma and Texas Tech as 9-point favorites.

UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

Given the earlier praise of UCSB’s recent offense, it should be no surprise that it has gone 14-2 to the Over since Jan. 21. Up until then, Santa Barbara had hit the Under in 10 of 16 games.

Baylor has not enjoyed any such totals trend, partly because the Big 12 featured six of Pomeroy’s Top-21 defenses. Those six come within Torvik’s Top-26. There was a reason Baylor needed to resort to the fundamentals to score.

Its No. 105 defense, per Pomeroy, was hardly the reason the Bears’ Over/Under record was a nearly perfectly unimpressive 16-15-1. It was the worst defense in the Big 12, by an aggressive margin. If the best bet rationale above was not enough to convince anyone of the Over, then realize Baylor gave up an effective field goal percentage of 53.0 in Big 12 play, nearly a full percentage point worse than the next worst mark, West Virginia’s.

UC Santa Barbara vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor hasn't lost three straight games against the spread since a three-game losing streak, also straight-up, to open conference play the first week of January. Since then, the Bears are 10-6-1 ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor.

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