Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Islanders, Redhawks Kick Off Big Dance

March Madness odds are here... and it’s officially time to start dancing.

The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament kicks off our March Madness picks on Tuesday with a First Four matchup between two No. 16 seeds — the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (23-10) and the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (19-16).

The Islanders went 14-4 overall in the Southland Conference and are red hot after winning 12 of their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Redhawks captured an OVC title in surprising fashion after winning four games in four days.

Which team will capture the first victory of March Madness? Check out our college basketball picks for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Southeast Missouri State to find out. 

Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State best odds

Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State picks and predictions

The books view the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders as the favorite in this one, establishing them between -3.5 and -4.5 at current depending on where you look. That shouldn’t come as a shocker considering they’ve been the better team for longer stretches this season and have four more conference wins than their opponent. 

This is Steve Lutz’s second year in charge of the program and it’s the second year the Islanders are dancing. They also won 23 games a season ago en route to a Southland Championship and First Four appearance in the NCAA Tournament — a bit of deja vu, perhaps? They fell 76-67 to Texas Southern in last year’s play-in game. 

This team checks in at 170th overall in KenPom — 137th in offensive efficiency and 229th in defensive efficiency. Isaac Mushila leads the way with 13.2 points and 9.4 rebounds for a team that thrives by getting to the charity stripe. The Islanders convert 16.3 free throws per game (sixth most nationally) and do so at a 79% rate (fifth). 

Southeast Missouri State didn’t have a standout regular season, going 10-8 and earning a No. 5 seed in the OVC Tournament, but the Redhawks got hot at the right time, winning four games in four days — all by at least seven points — to steal a bid. 

Brad Korn’s team tends to play in high-scoring games, averaging 77.7 points offensively while surrendering 76.0 defensively. They check in at 257th overall in KenPom — 263rd in offensive efficiency and 243rd in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams have a huge issue fouling, so expect plenty of time at the charity stripe for both sides. SEMO ranks 360th out of 363 teams nationally in fouls committed per game (21.5) while Corpus Christi ranks 339th at 19.5 per game. Offensively, both sides rank inside the Top 20 in free throws made per game. The Islanders shoot 79% from the charity stripe while the Redhawks shoot 71.5%. 

This game should see plenty of possessions between two fast-paced teams. The Redhawks get out and run as much as any team in the country, ranking seventh in adjusted tempo (KenPom). The Islanders also like to play fast, checking in at 80th in adjusted tempo. I expect a ton of possessions in what could quickly turn into a free-throw shooting contest. 

That will make for a high-scoring game and Vegas sees it that way, too. The total sits at a massive 153.5 in what’s should be an exciting first game of March Madness. The Islanders were an Over team through and through, notching an 18-11 O/U record. The Redhawks were even more profitable to the Over at 21-12. I’ll take the Over and would play it up to 155.5. 

My best bet: Over 153.5 (-108 at WynnBET)

Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State spread analysis

The oddsmakers have established Texas A&M-Corpus Christi as a favorite of between -3.5 and -4.5 depending on the book. 

Neither team has faced a particularly daunting schedule as both play in two of the weaker conferences. RPI ranks the OVC as the 29th-toughest conference while the Southland is directly behind at 30th. Per KenPom, the Islanders have faced the 352nd-most difficult schedule while the Redhawks have had just a slightly tougher test, ranking 332nd in strength of schedule. 

The Islanders have been the better team over most of the season and rank 87 spots higher in KenPom. They were the class of the Southland, winning both the regular season title and conference tournament championship. They won 12 of their last 13 games and enter the NCAA Tournament in fine form. 

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is 17-12 ATS this season overall. That includes a 15-8 ATS record as the favorite, which the Islanders are in this matchup. SEMO is 19-13-1 ATS this season and is 10-7-1 as an underdog. 

Brad Korn has a 44-50 overall record at SEMO. While the Redhawks finished the season strong, so did the Islanders. Steve Lutz is 46-22 across two seasons at Texas A&M-Corprus Christi.

The Islanders have the better track record overall, the longer track record as a winning team, are the better team analytically, and convert free throws at a high rate. Any of those factors could be the onus on Tuesday night and they all point toward the favorite. 

Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State Over/Under analysis

This is a high total in an NCAA Tournament game, but I'd argue it’s that way for a reason.

It’s not as if there isn’t a history of high-scoring First Four games, too. Last year saw Wright State defeat Bryant 93-82 in one of the 16-seed games. Two tournaments before that, Farleigh Dickinson and Praire View A&M combined for 158 points in one 16-seed play-in while North Dakota State and North Carolina Central combined for 152 in the other. 

You know both teams are offensively inclined when they combine to average 158.1 points per game. The pace should be flowing in this game between two transition teams and the amount of projected free throws should keep the clock from ticking too fast. Both teams like to get out and run, as Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks 56th in the percentage of shots taken in transition while SEMO checks in at 62nd (Hoop-Math). 

The Islanders average 80.4 points per game and rank 137th in offensive efficiency. Their offense will be the best unit on the court and should find looks against a SEMO team ranking 243rd in defensive efficiency.

The Redhawks rank just 212th in 2-point defense (50.2%) and 250th in 3-point defense (34.7%), so they can be attacked in a multitude of ways. The Islanders rank fifth nationally in free-throw percentage and face a defense that has fouling problems, so this forecasts as a good matchup. 

When SEMO has the ball, it will look to take advantage of an Islanders team that ranks 329th in 2-point defense. Their transition defense is especially lacking, where they rank 319th in effective field goal percentage allowed. 

Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State betting trend to know

These teams have combined to go 39-23 to the Over this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M-CC vs. Southeast Missouri State.

Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State game info

Texas A&M-CC vs Southeast Missouri State key injuries

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