Kennesaw State vs Xavier Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Musketeers Mangle the Owls

The Kennesaw State Owls will make their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament on Friday when they take on the Xavier Musketeers in the first round of our March Madness picks. 

No. 3 seed Xavier (25-9) reached the final of the Big East Tournament before falling to the Marquette Golden Eagles 65-51. Kennesaw State (26-8) earned a No. 14 seed and an automatic bid with a dramatic one-point victory in the final of the ASUN Tournament.

The Owls have made an incredible run and are a program on the rise, but the Musketeers are a huge favorite in Friday’s game according to March Madness odds. We’ll take a look at how this one might play out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kennesaw State vs. Xavier on March 17.

Kennesaw State vs Xavier best odds

Kennesaw State vs Xavier picks and predictions

Kennesaw State has gone through one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent college basketball memory. Three years ago, the Owls finished 1-28, and now they’re in the NCAA Tournament with an outstanding record. This marks the first time in the program’s 18 years of Division 1 play that it has finished with a winning record, let alone made it into March Madness.

It’s a great story and one that sets the Owls up for success in the future...but it’s hard to imagine Kennesaw State having much of a chance against Xavier on Friday.

The Musketeers are a potential Final Four team that has seemingly overcome the loss of Zach Freemantle, who hasn’t played since January 28 with a foot injury. Xavier is one of the best shooting teams in the country, hitting 50% of its shots from the field and scoring 82.1 points per game. This is a team that plays fast, makes the most of its opportunities, and often blows out lesser opponents.

On the other hand, any sort of examination of Kennesaw State’s resume reveals major holes. The Owls don’t have a signature win but lost by double figures to Florida, Campbell, San Diego State, and Indiana. 

Kennesaw State earned its first automatic bid by winning the ASUN Tournament, but it wasn’t an outstanding performance. The Owls won two of their three games by a single point, first over the Queens Royals in the quarterfinals, then by beating the Liberty Flames in the final when Terrell Burden hit a game-winning free throw with one second remaining on the clock.

Advanced metrics and rankings don’t look kindly on the Owls, either. Kennesaw State ranks 148th in the nation in the Sagarin ratings, while KenPom has the Owls at 127th. In both cases, they are by far the lowest-ranked team among this year’s No. 14 seeds.

KenPom also rates Kennesaw State outside the Top 100 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Perhaps most damning, it sees the Owls as the second luckiest team in the country, suggesting they may have won about five more games than expected based on their overall strength of play.

Those rating systems suggest that Xavier should be favored in this game by somewhere north of 13 points, and I would have expected to see a line of around 14.5 given what we’ve seen from both teams this season. Bettors are pushing the spread up, but it’s still too low for this one-sided mismatch.

I’m happily backing Xavier even though we have to lay a dozen points or more to back the Musketeers.

My best bet: Xavier -12.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Kennesaw State vs Xavier spread analysis

Xavier opened Friday’s game as an 11-point favorite. Money has poured in on the Musketeers, and as of late Wednesday, the consensus spread was now Xavier -12.5.

Both teams have played well against the spread this season. Xavier went 18-15-1 against the spread this season, while Kennesaw State did even better, putting up a 20-10-1 ATS record.

The Musketeers have already put together 14 double-digit victories this year, many of which have come against teams stronger than the Owls. When Xavier played weaker competition, it generally dominated, scoring big wins over the likes of the Montana Grizzlies (86-64) and the Georgetown Hoyas (two wins, each by 13 points). Those teams profile similarly in strength to Kennesaw State.

The Owls did have a few moments where they looked like they could stay in this sort of game this season. They stayed within 10 of Florida and 14 of Indiana, for instance. However, the Kennesaw State defense has little hope of stopping Xavier from scoring, and experienced guards Chris Youngblood (14.7 ppg) and Terrell Burden (13.5 ppg) can’t produce enough offense to stay with the Musketeers.

Xavier should win this game going away, and the result likely won’t be in doubt in the second half. Lay the points with the Musketeers.

Kennesaw State vs Xavier Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at 151.5 points. That number has already come up significantly, with most sportsbooks now putting the Over/Under at around 154.5.

That’s probably based on the offensive quality on display in this game. Xavier plays fast, which tends to offer opportunities to both teams. While the Musketeers get the better of that exchange most of the time, it does tend to raise their totals significantly. Meanwhile, the Owls are already averaging 75.6 points per game, and shoot a very respectable 36.9% from 3-point range. 

That said, both teams have been playing more restrained games as of late. Kennesaw State has hit the Under in four of its last five games, none of which ended with a total of higher than 151. Xavier went well below the total against Creighton in the Big East semifinal, then managed just 51 points against Marquette in an uncharacteristic performance that led to just 116 total points.

If you’re big on trends, they’re pointing in the direction of the Under. However, the way this game lines up, I think that the Over is still the right play even as the total rises. Xavier should score at will against Kennesaw State, and the Owls will get enough possessions to put up a fair number of points in return with their solid offense.

I expect Xavier to win big in a high-scoring contest that hits the Over.

Kennesaw State vs Xavier betting trend to know

Xavier is 24-7-2 in its last 33 NCAA Tournament games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kennesaw State vs. Xavier.

Kennesaw State vs Xavier game info

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