On Saturday, college basketball fans will witness an Elite Eight showdown between the Houston Cougars and Villanova Wildcats in San Antonio, Texas.
The winner of this game will advance to the Final Four, so you should expect a exciting battle between two great programs.
Will the Cougars continue their incredible run with a win over the Wildcats in front of their fans that were out in full force against Arizona? Keep reading our Houston vs. Villanova March Madness picks and predictions to find out.
Houston vs Villanova odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Houston was a small underdog over Arizona last game, but the team is now favored after having pulled off that insane win on Thursday. The Cougars opened as 2.5-point favorites in this game, but the line is floating between 2 and 2.5 now. The total, meanwhile, is up from 127 to 128 or 128.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
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Houston vs Villanova predictions
Predictions made on 3/25/2022 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Houston vs Villanova game info
• Location: AT&T Stadium, San Antonio, TX
• Date: Saturday, March 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:09 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Houston vs Villanova betting preview
Injuries
Houston: Marcus Sasser G (Out), Tramon Mark G (Out).
Villanova: Jordan Longino G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Villanova is 20-6 against the spread in its last 26 NCAA Tournament games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Villanova.
Houston vs Villanova picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
One of the advantages Houston has had over its previous three opponents — and almost every program the team faces during the regular season — is that Kelvin Sampson can coach circles around the guy in charge of the other bench. Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd looks like an elite head coach in the making, but that was his first time leading his own program. He still has room to grow and will surely learn from a wild (and incredibly successful) first year on the job. However, Villanova won’t be caught off guard by anything as long as Jay Wright is calling the shots.
Wright is every bit as good as Sampson is at getting the most out of his talent, and he prepares as well as anyone. He also prioritizes a tough non-conference schedule so that his team is ready for games just like this one. And the fact that the Wildcats played so many hard-fought games in the Big East tournament should also have them ready for this contest.
It’s pretty clear at this point that Houston is capable of slowing the pace down in any game, but Villanova’s offense was ninth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency this year (according to KenPom.com). Sure, Arizona was seventh in the country in that regard and wasn’t able to score against this Cougars defense, but Arizona had Kerr Kriisa and Bennedict Mathurin in the backcourt. The two sophomores had never played in a game that important, but the same can’t be said for Villanova guards Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels. The two seniors have been through it all and they should be ready to go in this matchup. Don’t expect Villanova to put up a lot of points, but you can count on this group to be better than Arizona when buckets are needed most.
Also, while Ken Pomeroy’s ratings have Villanova with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 93.0 this year (24th in country), the team has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 89.3 since the start of the NCAA Tournament (according to BartTorvik.com). That 89.3 would have been the eighth-best number in all of college basketball if it was Villanova’s season-long mark, so the Wildcats have really stepped things up on defense.
One thing Villanova shouldn’t have to deal with is Kyler Edwards going 5 for 9 from deep, like he did against Arizona. Edwards shot just 34.3% from three during the year, so that shooting performance came from out of nowhere.
Prediction: Villanova +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Over/Under analysis
The Arizona game proved that Houston is capable of slowing down any game. Lloyd’s team was seventh in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and ninth in adjusted tempo this year, but the Cougars held their opponents to just 60 points in that game. There were only 132 total points scored in that one, despite the total being set at 145. Meanwhile, Villanova was 345th in the country in adjusted tempo this year, while Houston is 338th in tempo. Only 13 teams played at a slower pace than Villanova, and Houston wasn’t much faster, at all. With that in mind, you should expect both of these teams to really walk it up and take their time on offense.
The Under is now 4-1 in Houston’s last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, and it’s also 9-3 in the last 12 neutral-court games that the Cougars have played. On top of that, the Under is also 35-17-1 in Houston’s last 53 games against teams with winning percentages of 60% or better. Villanova’s recent neutral-court games have also been rock fights, with the Under being 7-1 in the last eight that the Wildcats have played.
Prediction: Under 128.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
As mentioned earlier, Villanova is 20-6 against the spread in the team’s last 26 NCAA Tournament games. After a rough couple of years of performances in March Madness under Wright, this program has become a model of consistency when it comes to postseason basketball. Also, this group is certainly going to rally around the fact that the oddsmakers pegged Houston as the favorite to win this game.
Look for the guard play of Villanova to ultimately make the difference in this game. In a close contest, the Wildcats will surely be happy to lean on the experience of Gillespie and Samuels. Villanova just has a number of guards and wings that can be counted on to make big shots, but Houston doesn’t really have go-to options in the way the Wildcats do. That’s where the team might miss Sasser’s shot-making ability.
Pick: Villanova +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
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