My Portugal vs. Colombia predictions are backing a high-scoring but tight affair as Group K play comes to an end tonight. Portugal are the +105 favorites to win the match, which begins at 7:30 p.m. ET at Miami Stadium. Colombia are +235 to pull the upset on the moneyline.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Saturday, June 27, with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Miami. I break down my pick to win, Over/Under prediction, and my best goal-scorer pick for tonight's key matchup.
Who will win Portugal vs Colombia: Draw (+290)
Cristiano Ronaldo and the Portuguese attack finally showed up against Uzbekistan. His brace was part of a five-goal effort for the nation, putting nine of their 17 shots on target as their clinical finishing registered 3.49 xGOT vs. a 2.61 xG. It’s a key reason they’re favored at -113 to beat Colombia.
It was a far cry from the one goal in the opener against DR Congo, where they had problems breaking down their opponent’s low block. They put just one shot on target, as they struggled to link up with CR7 within the compact Congo structure.
They’ll face a similar frustration on Saturday. Colombia’s defense is very disciplined and compact, allowing just three shots on target over their first two matches, accounting for just 1.27 xGOT.
This puts Portugal in a tricky spot. Do they push forward and try to get the win they need in order to win the group, and allow Colombia to hit them on the break through Luis Diaz, Daniel Munoz, and Luis Suarez? If not, do they settle for the draw and ensure their top spot?
Winning the group means avoiding Spain, and I believe Portugal will take risks that open them up at the back. They’ll find goals as well, but only enough to earn a share of the spoils.
The draw is being undervalued here, and I’d back it down to +280.
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TOp pick
Portugal vs Colombia Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+105)
This match has the feel of a 2-2 or 3-3 scoreline for me, because there's simply too much attacking talent on display.
The Portuguese midfield trio of Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and Joao Neves is the best in the tournament. Their ability to pick out a pass is elite, and they present problems on set pieces as well. Ronaldo might be more involved after his boost in confidence, making more runs as he did against Uzbekistan.
While Colombia’s defense is compact, it’s not prone to sitting in a low block. They went toe-to-toe with France in their friendly in March, and despite a 3-0 loss, they matched up well for large portions of the game.
The other aspect that I think will lead to goals is the matchup between Portugal left back Nuno Mendes and Colombian right back Daniel Munoz. Both love to push forward in attack, which will create space for opposing attackers to exploit on the break.
With both teams determined to avoid a potential Round of 16 matchup with Spain, I’m expecting a punch/counterpunch outing that will lead to goals.
This is my top play of the match, and I’m taking it down to +100.
Portugal vs Colombia goal scorer pick: Luis Diaz (+350)
This price is far too high for a player of the attacking quality of Luis Diaz, especially given the volume of shots he attempts.
Diaz has attempted seven shots through two matches and scored on one of his two efforts vs. Uzbekistan while also registering an assist. He’s coming off a campaign with Bayern Munich where he scored 26 times in 51 matches, while assisting 19 others.
When Colombia breaks forward in attack, Diaz is the man they’ll be looking for. His ability to create his own shot and run at a defense makes this price a strong value, especially given the expected match flow.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Portugal vs Colombia projected lineup
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Fernandes; Neto, Ronaldo, Leao
Colombia (4-3-3): Vargas; Munoz, Sanchez, Lucumi, Mojica; Puerta, Lerma, Arias; James, Suarez, Diaz
Portugal vs Colombia injuries
Portugal: Tomas Araujo CB (Doubtful).
Colombia: No key injuries to report.
Portugal vs Colombia weather
Temperatures at kickoff will feel like 100 degrees, with winds up to 10 mph and lots of sunshine. There's an 18% chance of rain in the forecast.
Portugal vs Colombia odds today
 Portugal |
 Colombia |
|
|---|---|---|
| -113 | Moneyline | +333 |
| +290 | Draw | +290 |
| Over 2.5 (+113) | Total | Under 2.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Portugal vs Colombia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Saturday, June 27, 2026 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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