Duke vs Tennessee Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Devil in the Details for Vols

The No. 5 seed Duke Blue Devils face off against the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers for the second round of March Madness picks on Saturday afternoon. 

These teams have been moving in opposite directions with the Vols playing like one of the top teams in the nation before stumbling down the stretch while Duke caught fire. March Madness odds opened with the Blue Devils as 3-point favorites and the Over/Under at 128.5 for this East Region matchup. 

Here are my best free Duke vs. Tennessee college basketball picks and predictions for the Round of 32 on March 18.

Duke vs Tennessee best odds

Duke vs Tennessee picks and predictions

March Madness is all about momentum and while the Blue Devils are red-hot, the Volunteers have struggled after a terrific start to their campaign. Duke is on a 10-game winning streak and fresh off an impressive 23-point win against a dangerous Oral Roberts team in the first round. 

An end-of-season improvement wasn't completely unexpected for the Blue Devils who entered this season as national title contenders but were extremely inexperienced. With four freshmen starters and another serving as sixth man, this squad had growing pains but is starting to put it together and gel at the right time.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is trending in the opposite direction going 6-7 straight up and 4-9 against the spread since the start of February. At the end of January, the Volunteers were the highest-rated team in the country according to Bart Torvik, ranking 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency (111.7) and first in adjusted defensive efficiency (81.7). 

Since then their adjusted offensive efficiency has dipped to 108.9 (106th in the country), while their adjusted defensive efficiency has ticked up to 91.5. 

Add in a season-ending injury to point guard Zakai Zeigler (10.7 points and a team-high 5.4 assists per game) a few weeks ago and it's easy to see why this No. 4 seed is extremely vulnerable. 

The Vols didn't look good in their first-round matchup against Louisiana either, almost squandering their lead and holding on to win by just three points as 11.5-point favorites. 

Time and time again we've seen that highly seeded teams that struggle on one end of the floor don't last long in the tourney. As good as Tennessee is on defense, it hasn't been dominant enough to make up for an awful offense which should lead to a win and cover for a more balanced Duke side. 

My best bet: Duke -3.5 (-110 at bet365)

Duke vs Tennessee spread analysis

The Blue Devils have looked very impressive over the last month. They wrapped up their regular season with a road win in Chapel Hill before rolling to an ACC Conference Championship after destroying Pitt, beating Miami, and shutting down Virginia in the finals. They made quick work of Oral Roberts on Thursday winning 74-51 despite many pundits considering the Golden Eagles a potential Cinderella team.

With their length and athleticism, the Blue Devils have been a strong defensive team all season and rank 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Although their offense looked extremely stagnant earlier in the season, they've made massive strides in that area and their terrific rebounding gives them plenty of second chances.

Forward Kyle Filipowki leads Duke with 15.1 points and 9.0 rebounds per game while junior Jeremy Roach is a steadying force at point guard and averages 13.6 ppg. 

At the start of February, Tennessee was the No. 2-ranked team in the country and had compiled an 18-3 record. Since then, the Vols have gone just 6-7 and barely held off the Ragin' Cajuns in the Round of 64. Once against it was their poor offense that held them back with the Vols going 4-16 from beyond the arc, converting just 57% of their free throw attempts, and turning the ball over 16 times. 

The Volunteers are second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and while that stingy defense makes them a tough out, their pathetic offense means they are capable of losing to anyone when they go cold from the field. 

The Vols are outside the Top 200 in both field goal percentage (43.7%) and turnover rate (18%) and the one thing they do well on that end of the floor (control the offensive glass) will be neutralized by Duke's size and dominance on the boards. 

Tennessee is led by guard Santiago Vescovi, who averages 12.6 ppg but shoots just 40.2% from the floor. Forward Olivier Nkamhoua (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 51.4 FG%) and Josiah Jordan-James (10.2 ppg, 38.5 FG%) are the other two Vols averaging double-digits in points.

Duke vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

The Blue Devils are allowing just 61.7 ppg over their last 10 games and only one opponent during that span scored 70 or more points — Miami who ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

That said, while I already mentioned Tennessee's brutal shooting the Blue Devils have had their own offensive struggles this season as well. Although they've improved their shooting and have done a better job of taking care of the ball over the last month they are still 107th in the country in field goal percentage (45.2%) while ranking 171st in turnover rate (17.7%).

The Vols are third in the country in scoring defense (57.9 ppg allowed) against Div 1 foes while holding them to just 37% shooting from the field. 

Although Duke's defense hasn't been quite as dominant as Tennessee's, the Blue Devils do a few things better on that end of the floor. They do a better job of defending without fouling, sending opponents to the free-throw line at the 14th-lowest rate in the country while the Vols rank outside the Top 200 in that category. 

The Blue Devils also do a slightly better job at protecting the rim thanks in large part to the development of freshman center Dereck Lively II. The 7-foot-1 Lively was moved back into the starting lineup on January 28 and has racked up 3.1 blocks per game in 15 contests since then.  

Don't expect to see many 3-pointers from either team in this showdown, which should also help suppress scoring. Neither squad shoots well from deep with Duke connecting on 33.7% of its shots from long range against Div 1 foes while Tennessee knocks down 32.8%. They also lock down opponents beyond the arc with the Blue Devils 20th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (30.3%) and the Vols first (26.4%).

Duke vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 while the Vols are 1-5 ATS in their previous six contests against teams above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Tennessee.

Duke vs Tennessee game info

Duke vs Tennessee key injuries

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