Colgate vs Texas Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Follow the Carr

Texas meets Colgate in a matchup that some are expecting to be a huge upset in their March Madness picks.

The Longhorns come into the NCAA tournament blazing hot, having just won the Big 12 championship over Kansas. That marked their second win of the season against the defending champion Jayhawks, as Texas currently has the eighth-best March Madness odds to win the natty. 

Meanwhile, Colgate is on fire as well. The Raiders closed the season as winners of nine straight,  including a victory in the conference championship against Lafayette.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Colgate vs. Texas on March 16.

Colgate vs Texas best odds

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Colgate vs Texas picks and predictions

While neither school is exceedingly fast up the floor, each side still prefers to play up-tempo. With that in mind, I'm targeting the prop market for a player I expect to excel in these conditions. 

Marcus Carr got some love in the futures market from our college basketball experts for the Most Outstanding Player award, and that's for a good reason. The senior guard for Texas has started to simmer as the season has drawn to a conclusion. He's registered double-digits in points in three straight games, including 17 points in the Big 12 championship game. Perhaps he's rested early if this is a blowout, but on the surface, that feels like the only thing stopping him from going over the total. This is too good of a mismatch to pass up.

Colgate struggles defensively in a few areas on the floor and the most notable is how badly the Raiders are at defending spot-up shooters. The scheme is not conducive to stopping dribble action, and Texas has three starters on the court who can handle the ball very well.

I believe Carr is the most likely to profit from that as he has a ton of diversity to his game. Whether it's being the shooter on spot-up sets with a field goal percentage of over 40% or being the pick-and-roll handler where he's the best scorer on the team, Carr steers the Texas offense. 

Additionally, Carr has the highest drawn-foul percentage on the Longhorns. He's getting to the line at a clip of around three to four times per game, which is a massive part of this handicap considering it's easy to see a scenario where Colgate is routinely a step slow and has to foul drivers.

Don't overcomplicate things here with a prop that feels right. Give me one of the hottest players on one of the best teams in the country to set the tone.

My best bet: Marcus Carr Over 16.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Colgate vs Texas spread analysis

Don't expect any upset here, as this is a bad matchup for the fighting toothbrushes.

Colgate needed a matchup with a team that had manageable athleticism and played slower. Instead, in many ways... the Raiders got the antithesis of that.

The Longhorns will have multiple mismatches all over the floor and should have no issues getting out in transition. It starts with Marcus Carr's driving ability, and when you add in the fact that the recently injured Timmy Allen has been cleared to play, things get even worse for Colgate.

I'm expecting the Horns to roll here. While Carr's prop is better, I have no problem laying the points with Texas in this spot as well.

Colgate vs Texas Over/Under analysis

I'm playing a unit on the Over here at 150.5. I don't suspect that Texas has issues covering, but I think Colgate can have some sustained success scoring.

The Raiders grade out as the best spot-up shooting team in the country. While some of that is opponent induced, 44% shooting on spot-up sets is nothing to sneeze at.

Texas' most significant concern is managing Colgate players coming off screens. The Raiders offer multiple shooters, and that's caused issues for Texas from time to time this season.

I'm expecting Colgate to be able to do enough offensively to help cash the Over.

Colgate vs Texas betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Colgate's last five game's following an ATS win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colgate vs. Texas.

Colgate vs Texas game info

Colgate vs Texas key injuries

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