Do not describe the women’s North Carolina State Wolfpack as a Cinderella. Unlike their male counterparts, these Wolfpack were always destined for this March Madness bracket. There was a reason they landed a No. 3 seed, even if now they face the best team in the country.
The South Carolina Gamecocks remain the presumptive favorite in all Women's March Madness odds, including tonight's Final Four matchup.
Well, frankly, yes, in this instance, because the Gamecocks’ offense operates with such ruthless efficiency. We will trust that offense in our free Final Four picks and predictions as we preview USC vs. UConn on Friday, April 5, with tip set for 7:00 p.m. ET.
NC State vs South Carolina best odds
 NC State Wolfpack |
 South Carolina Gamecocks |
|
|---|---|---|
| +11.5 (-108) | Spread | -11.5 (-112) |
| +625 | Moneyline | -950 |
| Over 139.5 (-110) | Total | Under 139.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 5.
NC State vs South Carolina picks and predictions
My best bet: South Carolina -11.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
It has been clear since mid-November that this version of South Carolina may somehow be Dawn Staley’s best. It's best on defense, but also an offensive machine, hitting 49.2% of its field goals with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%, No. 10 in the country.
It is an offense that may as well never take a night off, scoring fewer than 70 points just twice this season and not at all since Feb. 22. The Gamecocks have been more likely to score 100 points than fall short of 70, cracking triple-digits half a dozen times this season.
More precisely, South Carolina has averaged 0.96 points per possession, an absurd number juiced by some routs, but one still indicative of this ruthless offense, particularly since it has averaged even more points per possession in the NCAA Tournament.
It is so ruthless in part because it is so balanced. The Gamecocks can hit 3-pointers — 39.4%, No. 3 in the country — but do not depend on them, taking them on only 22% of possessions, No. 317 in the country. If trying to find an exact offensive habit, there is no clear tell. South Carolina ranks in the lower third in point distributions from two, from three, and from the free throw line simply because it spreads its points around far more evenly than the rest of the country.
Against a team dependent on its defense, that kind of balanced offense should hum.
North Carolina State rarely fouls and makes opponents’ lives miserable on the interior, giving up the 11th-lowest 2-point field goal percentage in the country. That led to foes shooting from beyond the arc on more than 30% of their possessions.
South Carolina will not mind that. In fact, South Carolina may enjoy it.
The Wolfpack will not be able to survive allowing the Gamecocks to heave from deep, at which point the NC State defense will become too thinly-spread. Combine that with arguably the best defense in the country, and South Carolina should have no trouble with this 11.5-point spread.
NC State vs South Carolina same-game parlay
South Carolina -11.5
South Carolina team total Over 75.5
Under 139.5
Consider this a bet on South Carolina’s defense setting up its offense. The offense earns top-billing in this analysis only because NC State’s defense is its calling card, so if the Gamecocks want to control this game, they will be best served countering the Wolfpack’s strength.
But South Carolina’s defense ranks No. 1 in opponent points per 100 possessions, No. 1 in opposing effective field goal percentage and No. 1 in opponent field goal percentage inside the arc.
In other words, NC State’s adequate offense will struggle mightily. And that alone should keep this game Under its total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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NC State vs South Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
- Taking South Carolina at -11.5 runs counter to most of the money at BetMGM, with 73% of the handle on NC State, despite only 53% of tickets backing the Wolfpack. That, in theory, suggests the sharper money is on the underdog in this semifinal.
- The total has seen an even more disproportionate split, with 72% of tickets and 81% of cash backing the Over, though the number has not budged from 139.5.
- The money supporting both NC State and the Over creates a bit of a disconnect, given how the Wolfpack are driven by their defense.
Not intended for use in MA.
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NC State vs South Carolina game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
NC State vs South Carolina injuries
NC State: None to report.
South Carolina: None to report.
