The Baltimore Orioles are staking their claim as one of the best teams in baseball following back-to-back wins over the New York Yankees. Game 3 of this four-game series between divisional counterparts goes down Wednesday night at Camden Yards.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions go against the grain with Baltimore deploying its best hurler as betting favorites in the MLB odds.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks on Wednesday, May 1.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 strikeouts (-133 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Corbin Burnes has been effective thus far since joining the Baltimore Orioles, posting a 2.55 ERA and 3.00 xERA across his first six starts. However, one trend you’ll notice is he’s not generating as many strikeouts as usual, recording six or fewer Ks in each of his last five starts.
You might be inclined to write that off as a small sample size, but then you would be ignoring a long-term trend in which his punchout numbers have been headed in the wrong direction. Since his K-rate peaked at an otherworldly 36.7% in 2020, it’s decreased every year since and bottomed out at 25.5% last year. Through six starts, he’s at the same 25.5% this season.
He faces off against a New York Yankees lineup that has the fifth-lowest K-rate against right-handed pitching (19.8%). They’re a patient bunch that is happy to see a lot of pitches and draw out counts to make opposing pitchers work, ranking second in walk rate against righties (11.2%).
By my count, the Yankees have faced 22 right-handed starting pitches, and only one of them has recorded 7+ strikeouts. That’s a tough trend to overcome, especially when you’ve been heading in the wrong direction punchout-wise like Burnes.
Bookmakers have ignored the downward trend with Burnes' strikeouts and have priced his K prop up at 6.5 for Wednesday. He’s still a terrific pitcher and could hit this mark, but all signs point toward the Under and I’ll be playing that with my best for this contest.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 strikeouts
Corbin Burnes Over 2.5 walks
Luis Gil Over 5.5 strikeouts
If we’re working under the assumption that the Yankees will make Burnes labor since that’s what they usually do to opposing pitchers, adding an Over on Burnes’ walk prop makes sense. He issued three free passes in his last start, making it the third time in his last four games that he’s issued 2+ walks.
As for Luis Gil, the Yankees starter has notched at least six strikeouts in each of his five starts and has a nasty array of pitches, ranking fourth among starters (with 20+ innings pitched) in Stuff+ (121).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-160) | Baltimore -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: New York +135 | Baltimore -160
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Yankees vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore has been tough to beat when Burnes is on the mound, going 5-1. New York is 3-2 when Gil starts.
- The Orioles have the lowest walk rate in the league against righties (6.3%) but face a pitcher in Gil who has struggled mightily to throw strikes (17.6% walk rate).
- Baltimore has trended to the Over at 16-11 O/U, but New York has been the opposite at 12-18 O/U.
Yankees vs Orioles trend
Only one of the 22 right-handed starting pitches to face the Yankees this season has recorded more than 6.5 strikeouts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park and Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AmazonPV, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (1-1, 4.01 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (3-0, 2.55 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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